A reminder that both Sino-Russian and Indo-Russian relations are ententes, not alliances.
The messages for China and the US in Putin’s trip to India
- The Russian president’s rare international visit was a chance for Moscow to strengthen defence ties with New Delhi
- It was also a signal of how far its interests extend into conflicts with other world players, analysts say
11 Dec, 2021
When Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in New Delhi on Monday, it was only his second overseas trip since the pandemic began.
Putin was in India to renew the “special privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries, a relationship that dates back to the Cold War.
During his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi,Putin described India as “a great power, a friendly nation and a time-tested friend”. For his part, Modi called ties with Moscow, India’s largest weapons supplier, “truly a unique and reliable model”.
A joint statement issued after their talks confirmed their intention to “strengthen defence cooperation, including in the joint development of production of military equipment”.
The whirlwind trip was not only a boost to defence ties between the two countries, it was a message to China, which is in the midst of a protracted stand-off with India in the Himalayas. It was also a reality check for the United States, as its feud with China deepens in the Indo-Pacific, analysts say.
Despite the long-standing ties, Russia and India would seem to line up on opposing sides.
Russia
has increased its alignment with China to counter growing pressure from
the West. At the same time, India has shed its traditional ambiguity in
the US-China rivalry and embraced Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy to
counterbalance Beijing amid the border impasse.
Yun Sun, a senior
fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said the China-Russia
relationship was often simplified as both being in the same camp against
all others but in reality there were more factors at play.
“If China finds Russia’s relationship with India irritating, India should find Russia’s relationship with China even more irritating – with all the strategic coordination and alignment, India would be totally sidelined,” she said.
“But
in reality, India never hoped for Russian exclusivity. In comparison,
China’s bar appears to be much higher – that if Russia is China’s
friend, it should see all China’s enemies as its own enemies. In
reality, that is simply not the case.
“The China-Russia alignment is
motivated by the common threat perception about the US. That threat
perception does not extend to other countries, including India and
Southeast Asian countries.” Mark
N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason
University, said Putin’s trip had a message for the other players.
“For Putin, his visit to India shows that despite the closeness in US-India ties, India is not siding with the US in its increasingly acrimonious relations with Russia,” Katz said.
“Similarly for Modi, Putin’s visit
to India shows that despite the closeness in Russian-Chinese ties,
Russia is not siding with China in its increasingly acrimonious
relations with India.”
India boosts military presence as border talks with China remain stalled
A highlight of the visit was the announcement that delivery of Russia’s S-400 advanced missile-defence system had started this month, as a part of a US$5 billion weapons deal signed in 2018.
India boosts military presence as border talks with China remain stalled
A highlight of the visit was the announcement that delivery of Russia’s S-400 advanced missile-defence system had started this month, as a part of a US$5 billion weapons deal signed in 2018.
China became the first foreign buyer of the S-400 in 2014, but Moscow suspended the delivery of missiles last year according to Russia’s Tass news agency, following the deadly clash between Chinese and Indian troops in the disputed area of eastern Ladakh in June.
India’s decision to buy the Russian system was in defiance of US threats of sanctions but it was a calculated move very much with China in mind, according to Jagannath Panda, head of the East Asia Centre of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.
“The [S-400] deal is likely to give New Delhi a ‘boost’ with regards to the current tensions because it improves their defence capabilities to such an extent that the risk of US sanctions and further complications with China are worth taking,” he said.
“India is very aware that any US
sanctions would ultimately undermine the security goals of the US in the
Indo-Pacific with regards to China and so they will be unlikely.
“And, secondly, because despite Russia reiterating that ‘no extra-regional player’ should be involved in the border tensions, China has already purchased defence equipment from Russia and so New Delhi feels it can do the same.”
Sun Shihai, director of the China Centre for South Asian
Studies at Sichuan University, also said India’s continued purchase of
advanced weapons from Russia would strengthen its military in relation
to China.
But Sun played down the impact of the S-400 deal on the border stand-off between China and India, which has shown little sign of resolution 19 months after flaring back to life.
But Sun played down the impact of the S-400 deal on the border stand-off between China and India, which has shown little sign of resolution 19 months after flaring back to life.
“Neither China nor India wants to go to war over their border dispute. And I don’t see any hopes of a solution considering that little progress has been made so far in the numerous negotiations over the past year,” he said.
“Instead, both sides have tried to build up their defences, while focusing on preventing the escalation of tensions.”
Danil Bochkov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, said that despite rising suspicion in Beijing towards Moscow, China “would not question its ‘historically best’ relations with its closest partner in order to slap India, at least not at the moment”.
Danil Bochkov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, said that despite rising suspicion in Beijing towards Moscow, China “would not question its ‘historically best’ relations with its closest partner in order to slap India, at least not at the moment”.
The fact that Putin is welcomed in New Delhi amid the rising tensions with the West around Ukraine would also give a boost to the isolated Moscow, according to Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University.
“The visit confirms that Russia sees
India as the second most important strategic partner among the world’s
major powers. Even though China is no doubt Russia’s main strategic
partner, and perhaps a quasi-ally, Moscow does not want to become overly
dependent on China,” he said. “Neither American nor Chinese hegemony is
acceptable to Russia.”
The New Delhi trip also showed that Russia
maintained neutrality on the India-China border dispute, he said. “In
fact, Russia remains a key stakeholder in resolving the India-China
border conflict, since normal relations between Beijing and New Delhi
are a vital condition for the realisation of Moscow’s vision of Greater
Eurasia, which is in essence the project for creating a concert of
Eurasian powers.”
While Indian officials and media have tried to spin Putin’s visit as a symbolic sign of political support, Katz cautioned that Moscow may not agree with it. “While New Delhi may see Putin’s visit to India as useful in showing Beijing that Moscow will not side with it against India, the Indians should be under no illusion that Putin would side with India against China. This would only happen if Sino-Russian relations broke down somehow, but both Putin and Xi seem determined not to let this happen,” he said.
Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, agreed that Putin’s India visit was a shrewd diplomatic move. “From a military perspective Russia is to India what the US is to Australia. Russia is a source of advanced military technology like fifth-generation combat aircraft, nuclear submarines and the S-400,” he said.
“It is
also a reminder that Putin is not only a power broker, a catalyst and a
disrupter on the small and middle power level like in Syria, Iran and
Afghanistan but also at the great power level.
“He can shape the strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific just as easily as he can derail Western designs in Eastern Europe, the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. This message, ahead of the talk with Biden, could not have come at a more opportune moment.”