The alarm bells are sounding.
The
United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and
the donor community have all been warning of the humanitarian
catastrophe emerging with the imminent collapse of the Afghan economy.
The withdrawal of US and allied forces from the country, which led to
the disintegration of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the
Taliban takeover, has been followed by the cutoff of most external
assistance and the freezing of most of Afghanistan’s monetary reserves,
thereby eliminating 40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product
and 75 percent of the government’s budget. The banking system is on the
verge of collapse as well, and the currency (the afghani) is losing
value rapidly. Add to this a prolonged drought, a raging COVID-19
pandemic, and the disintegration of government services. The United
Nations Development Program has warned that “Afghanistan teeters on the
brink of universal poverty,” with as much as 97 percent of the
population in danger of falling below the poverty line by mid-2022. The
World Food Program estimates that only 5 percent of Afghan households
have sufficient food to eat each day and predicts that Afghanistan is
poised to become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The UN’s
humanitarian chief laments that Afghanistan’s economy is unraveling
“before our eyes.”
The international community is gearing up to
provide increased humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and the World
Bank is releasing some funds to support this effort. But more help is
needed to stave off disaster. In addition to food and medicine,
Afghanistan needs a stable medium of exchange and a functioning banking
system to avoid experiencing widespread economic and governance failure.
Health professionals, teachers, and other essential workers need to be
paid if the most basic functions of the state are to be maintained.
Ordinary Afghans deserve access to their own funds, now frozen in banks
wary of US and international sanctions and the potential collapse of the
Afghan financial system. Afghans abroad need the financial mechanisms
to send remittances to their relatives, some of whom are being left
behind by cumbersome US rules on who qualifies for refugee and immigrant
status.
The Biden administration, like other donors to
Afghanistan, is rightly reluctant to do anything that helps the Taliban
impose its repressive rule on the country, underscored by recent reports
of extrajudicial killings and disappearances. Nevertheless, discussions
are underway in Washington and elsewhere to explore various means of
stabilizing the Afghan currency and averting the collapse of the banking
system without providing the Taliban with discretionary resources that
could be used for nefarious purposes. Good ideas for how to do so are
available, including proposals by former US ambassadors, USAID
directors, and World Bank officials, among others. Because any scheme
along these lines will be very controversial, and no system of controls
will be perfect, what is needed is the courage to act. The longer
decisions are postponed, the more difficult it will become to prevent
the looming humanitarian catastrophe in the country and the deaths of
many Afghans.
During the past twenty years, all of us have led
American diplomatic and military efforts to support the emergence of a
more modern, prosperous, and democratic Afghanistan. We are much more
than dissatisfied with the results, and many of us disagreed with the US
decision to withdraw from the country. We believe the United States and
its allies can and should be working in a more concerted manner both
behind the scenes and publicly to send clear messages to Taliban leaders
relating to core issues like counterterrorism cooperation, broadening
the non-Pashtun representation within the government, and upholding the
basic rights of women, people of other ethnic groups, and Afghans
closely associated with the United States and other partners. Our
personal experience has also left us with indelible respect and
affection for the millions of Afghans who joined in this
enterprise—fighting, teaching, voting, ministering to the sick, sending
their children to school, running for office, founding new businesses,
and building the freest and most vibrant media environment in Central
Asia.
We believe the United States has a reputational interest
and a moral obligation in vigorously joining efforts to help the Afghan
people preserve at least some of the social and economic gains made over
the last twenty years. We believe that ways to do so can be found,
while erecting barriers to assistance being diverted to purposes other
than those for which it is intended. Afghan civil society continues to
exist, and it is important that the United States and other
international donors continue to work with it.
We therefore
recommend that the Biden administration expedite its consideration of
these issues and, working in close coordination with key allies, come
forward with tangible proposals to help stabilize the Afghan economy for
discussion with other donors and ultimately presentation to the
Taliban. Delay will only fuel more death and suffering.