Tigrayan Forces Announce Retreat From Afar and Amhara
More than a year into Ethiopia’s brutal civil war, Tigrayan rebel forces have announced plans to withdraw all troops from Afar and Amhara, two highly contested regions.
“We trust that our bold act of withdrawal will be a decisive opening for peace,” Debretsion Gebremichael, the leader of Tigray, said in a letter to the United Nations. “We propose an immediate cessation of hostilities followed by negotiations.”
The war, which broke out in November 2020, has taken a deadly toll. For months, Ethiopians have faced mounting humanitarian crises: ethnic cleansing campaigns in Tigray; widespread famine conditions; aid blockades; and the weaponization of sexual violence. Throughout the conflict, all parties—the Ethiopian central government, allied with neighboring Eritrea, and the opposing Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—have been suspected of committing atrocities.
In the letter, Gebremichael called for a no-fly zone over Tigray and arms embargoes on the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments, while denouncing the international community’s humanitarian inaction throughout the conflict.
By issuing the letter, “the TPLF has reset the narrative,” said Cameron Hudson, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. “They’ve been able to put responsibility on the international community for failing to defend them, and they’ve now put the ball in the government’s court.”
Sharp turn. Just a month ago, Tigrayan forces appeared to have the upper hand. In November, the government declared a state of emergency as it braced for the TPLF’s advance on Addis Ababa, even going so far as to call on citizens to defend the city from a military assault. But after being armed with a steady supply of Emirati, Turkish, and Iranian combat drones, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s fortunes slowly shifted.
“It’s been clear that in the last few weeks the Tigrayans had been losing ground on the military front,” said Hudson. “I think the question that we have to ask is, is this a tactical retreat to buy time, to rearm, and to regroup? Or is this truly a kind of strategic reset for the TPLF.”
What’s next? With the Tigrayans’ terms now on the table, much now rests on how Abiy chooses to respond. In recent weeks, the government reportedly closed schools to support the war effort, while thousands of civilians left their jobs to enlist in the army.
“It’s now a question as to whether or not the government is going to extend their hand in peace,” Hudson said.