Lavrov’s Myanmar Visit
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in Myanmar today, where he’s expected to meet with his Burmese counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin as well as other members of the country’s ruling junta.
Lavrov’s stop in Naypyidaw comes as he has been touring the world and shoring up alliances in the face of a Western sanctions campaign. Last week it was Africa’s turn as he called on leaders in Egypt, Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia.
Lavrov is continuing a busy exchange between the countries. Junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has visited Moscow twice in the past two months: In June, he attended a security conference and met with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, while Moscow described his July trip as a “personal visit.”
Lavrov arrives as the junta, which took power in a Feb. 2021 coup, has once again become the target of international condemnation following its execution of four pro-democracy activists last week. The heavily sanctioned country even united the U.N. Security Council, when Russia and China joined its fellow council members in denouncing the killings.
Rather than cow opponents of the junta’s rule, the executions appear to have done the opposite. Myanmar’s anti-military resistance, which constitutes a mix of political groups and ethnic militias, issued a rare joint statement following the killings vowing “unitedly and relentlessly to advance a people’s revolution to successfully eradicate the fascist military dictatorship as soon as possible.”
Despite the running conflict, which has killed over 2,000 civilians so far, Russia isn’t about to cut ties with the junta. Myanmar’s strategically valuable position between India and China as well as its Indian Ocean access makes the country a valuable partner, and one that Russia has spent years cultivating.
But even though the Russia-Myanmar relationship isn’t new, it has accelerated as Myanmar positions itself as “possibly Russia’s most uncritical partner in Asia,” Laurel Miller, the Asia program director at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy.
“I think what you can see is that you’ve got a little club of pariahs here. And so, incentives that they had previously to develop their ties are magnified in a context of a shrinking circle of friends,” Miller said.
There’s plenty in it for Myanmar’s junta too. Although arms sales have slowed since the coup, Russia, along with China, is still supplying the junta with weapons. That connection was on display last week, when rights group Myanmar Witness documented the use of Russian-made Yak-130 aircraft against civilians near the Myanmar-Thailand border. (FP’s Mary Yang reported on the expansion of the military’s campaign in Myanmar’s east in June).
Following Min Aung Hlaing’s July visit, Russia’s defense ministry pledged to deepen military ties and “consistently build up multifaceted cooperation between the military departments of the two countries.”
For Myanmar, the relationship with Russia is not just a chance to keep on the good side of a powerful friend but also a way to hedge against Beijing. Not that the military is worried about relations with China, which has helped block meaningful action against Myanmar’s junta. Despite China’s protection, the United States is trying to pursue further punishment by considering sanctions on Myanmar’s energy sector, FP’s Robbie Gramer and Mary Yang report.
Before Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the country in July—the first time since the coup. Then, Wang was criticized for legitimizing the junta, which has so far been shunned by fellow ASEAN member nations.
Will Lavrov’s visit provide a further sheen to ensure their grip on power? “The hopes for a peaceful negotiated resolution of the situation in Myanmar, were so dim already, that I’m hard pressed to say that this dooms them further,” Miller said.
“The fact is, [the junta leaders] are still in firm control, even though the population is overwhelmingly against them, and that doesn’t look to be cracking anytime soon.”