Conflict Reignites in Nagorno-Karabakh
Clashes flared between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday, raising concerns about spiraling violence nearly two years after a war in the region. At least three soldiers died in the latest fighting.
Nagorno-Karabakh, which is populated mostly by Armenians, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought over the region for decades. They have not reached a formal peace agreement in the wake of their most recent 44-day war, which ended in Azerbaijan’s favor. Yerevan saw large protests in May calling for the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in part over his handling of the conflict.
In 2020, Azerbaijan took over part of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as areas it lost during a previous conflict in the 1990s, with Turkish military support. As part of a cease-fire agreement brokered in November 2020 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, around 2,000 Russian peacekeeping forces remain in the region. The latest clashes occurred in the Lachin corridor, which the Russian forces oversee.
Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame on Wednesday, each saying that the other side had launched an attack in areas controlled by the Russian peacekeepers. The Russian defense ministry said that Azerbaijani forces had violated the cease-fire; Russia has historically supported Armenia, although it did not intervene on its behalf in 2020. The European Union has called for an immediate end to hostilities.
There have been signs of building tensions in recent months, with Armenia accusing Azerbaijan of violating the cease-fire in March. The countries’ leaders met for talks in Brussels this spring mediated by the EU Council president, but a formal framework for peace negotiations remains out of reach so far. Russia’s military is of course preoccupied with its own war in Ukraine, where it appears to be preparing for a battle in the south; this likely limits Moscow’s appetite for further involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh in the event of renewed conflict.
Meanwhile, Turkey remains a key player. In recent weeks, Armenia had looked toward normalizing ties with Turkey—perhaps in an effort to seek stability in the South Caucasus. Armenia and Turkey’s own border has been closed since the 1990s conflict. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear that any further progress in the talks between Yerevan and Ankara is contingent on Armenia’s negotiations with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan has benefited from Russia’s war in Ukraine in another way: The EU agreed to double its natural gas imports from the country by 2027 as it seeks to wean itself off Russian energy supplies. That could have consequences in Nagorno-Karabakh, with Brussels becoming dependent on Baku for some of its resources, as Gabriel Gavin wrote in FP in May.