The tomb of Jafar-bin-Abi Talib, the paternal cousin of the Prophet, is
one of the religious sites in Jordan Iranian visitors are eager to visit
However, Jordan will not be successful in Syria without Iran's help.
Tehran has been present in Syria for more than four decades and has a
wide influence in the country. After the withdrawal of some Russian
forces from southern Syria to Ukraine, Iran has gained an even stronger position in Syria.
In the south and in the city of Daraa, which borders Jordan, with the
evacuation of the Russians, the Syrian militias, dependent on Iran,
have filled their place, and have turned to drug trafficking to Jordan for funding.
As well, the border crossing of Nasib-Jaber, a key point for exports to Syria was reopened
in September 2021. Iran’s influence over the Syrian militias means that
goods both legal and illegal can move smoothly across the border.
Turning to Iraq it is worth noting that the Iraqis and the Jordanians
had the best Arab relations until Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and even
then Jordan declined to condemn the invasion or join the war effort
against the Iraqis. In fact, until the 1958 nationalist coup in Iraq,
the kings of Jordan and Iraq were from the same family. Since 2019,
Jordan has entered into many economic agreements with Iraq and Egypt in a trilateral partnership.
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Jordan bought 15,000 barrels of cheap
oil per day from Iraq, and Baghdad plans to free itself from reliance on
the Strait of Hormuz through the Basra Port to Aqaba pipeline. Efforts
to establish a joint industrial zone, cooperation in the field of
renewable energy projects, electricity, and petrochemicals are other
Jordan-Iraq economic initiatives.
Iran alone can play a spoiler role in the process of rapprochement
between Jordan and Iraq. It has infiltrated the Iraqi economy and
through the Shia militia groups, it has the power to determine the
leadership of the country. So Jordan needs coordination with Iran in
Iraq in order to realize its strategic aims.
Regional dialogues
Despite the differences within the Arab world, Iran is looking for
direct talks with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and
other Arab countries in the MENA region. Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the
mediation of Iraq, have started eight rounds of negotiation and there
are reports they are moving toward re-opening their embassies in the near future.
The United Arab Emirates started de-escalation with Iran in 2021, and even the Houthi attack
on the Abu Dhabi airport in January 2022, which was attributed to the
Iranians, did not prevent the continuation of cooperation between Abu
Dhabi and Tehran.
The UAE's decision to send an ambassador to Iran after six years and the efforts of UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash to reduce
tensions after Biden's trip to the Middle East ( viz: "The UAE is not
part of any axis against Iran," ) shows that de-escalation has not been
fruitless.
Egypt is also following the process of de-escalation with Iran.
During Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's visit to Oman on June 27, he secretly met with Iranian officials and assured them that the Negev summit in Israel in May was not against Iran.
The security of Jordan depends on the security of the GCC. Amman has a
deep belief in regional dialogues and creating a regional balance, a
prerequisite for an equation that fits the political and economic
interests of both Jordan and the region. The normalisation of relations
between Iran and the GCC gives Jordan the opportunity (and the courage)
to approach Tehran. As well, King Abdullah may be able to leverage
improved relations with Iran to ease tensions between his kingdom and
the GCC states.
It is worth noting too that the motives for achieving reconciliation
relations are two-way and Iran also needs Jordan. Jordan's efforts to
return Syria to the Arab League and secure some exemptions from the
Caesar Act are a good option that complements Tehran's efforts to end
Bashar al-Assad's isolation.
Regarding Palestine, the Iranians, like King Abdullah, believe that
there is "no peace in the Middle East without resolving the Palestinian
cause". Both countries were against the so-called "Deal of the Century"
and Tehran believes it can achieve some of its goals in Palestine with
the cooperation of Jordan. Additionally, they share a common worry about
the Abraham Accords and Israel’s growing acceptance within the Arab
world.
Religious tourism can also become a common point to strengthen
relations between Amman and Tehran while bringing much needed economic
benefits to Jordan. Iranians are very eager to visit religious sites
such as the tomb of the cousin of the Prophet of Islam, Jafar, son of
Abi Talib, which is 120 kilometres south of Amman.
The Iran-Jordan friendship path is still at the beginning, and there
is a long way to go. However, both countries can encourage the process
by working on economic cooperation, technology transfer such as
desalination of seawater, agriculture, and especially religious tourism.