Feet on the ground in St Petersburg: the public mood
One of the first questions put to me by a reader via the Comments function with respect to Monday’s report of my initial impressions after arriving in St Petersburg was: and what is the general mood of people? I begged off answering, saying that I would have to speak to a lot more people before I could confidently answer that question.
And in all truth, what I am about to say is still based on a very small sampling, combined with observations of what is being said on public television. But I think the overall contours of the ‘public mood’ are emerging to my satisfaction and can be shared.
In a nutshell: ‘life goes on.’ The fear of economic upheaval, fear of losing one’s job or small business, fear of price inflation and volatile exchange rates which I saw at the beginning of the Special Military Operation - all of that has dissipated. In my own immediate surroundings nothing could confirm that better than what occurred yesterday in our dealings with the first prospective Buyer of our little farm property south of Petersburg. In mid-September, she had placed a deposit on the purchase with the broker but then backed out of the deal over fears for the future when the partial mobilization was announced. Yesterday she sat down with us in the notary’s office and then at the bank which was opening escrow accounts for execution of the sale-purchase. She signed all the papers and the deal proceeded to the stage of re-registration of the title deeds. That was an unspoken but dramatic confirmation that someone from the ranks of the Russian middle class, someone working for a living, has enough confidence in the future to make a personal investment in a fixed asset that you cannot put in the back of your car and take across the border.
I offer another vivid impression from the long conversation with our real estate agent who drove us out to the dacha the day before signing the bill of sale for a final inspection of the property with the Buyer. The agent is another good marker for the Russian middle class of hard working professionals who have a city apartment, own a dacha and a good car to get out there and for whom the impact of the ongoing war may be measured more in abstract concerns than in immediate threats such as the mobilization of a son or husband. To be sure, there is a risk to her revenues from rising mortgage rates when state subsidies are removed in the new year, bringing down customer flows to her agency and also bringing down housing prices generally. But her greater concern is how the harsh limitation on issuance of visas to Russian tourists by Western European countries and the still harsher cut-off of air connections with the world remove or impinge on her great pleasure of travel abroad for vacations.
Our real estate agent works in what was until 24 February an American owned franchise business of global proportions. She knew and had colleagues in the States who now write to her arguing that she must take action to protest her government’s invasion of Ukraine. She is sympathetic to their reasoning that the war was unprovoked and unnecessary. But she says there is nothing she can do about it so her mission is just to keep her head down and get on with life. She keeps a very close eye on the euro/ruble exchange rate, on air fares to Istanbul and other gateways to the wide world for Russian tourists. She found a splendid solution for her own next vacation, which will be a week in Antalya, Turkey; for that route the air fares charged to charter flight passengers remain low and affordable.
I add, parenthetically, that travel abroad for wealthy Russians is no problem. For the medium wealthy, the several thousand extra euros that flying via Istanbul or Dubai add to their vacation costs are tolerable. For the super wealthy, there are plenty of private jets available to make life comfortable and worry-free when you seek a winter break in the Alps or on a tropical beach.
Riding the metro yesterday around St Petersburg, I saw a moderately well dressed public around me – no fur coats or hats, but then again no sneakers or torn jeans. Most everyone was busy reading or typing into their electronic gadgets. And yet, unlike in Brussels, they were attentive enough to their surroundings and to traditional courtesy to rise and offer their seats to women with young children or to the elderly. That is something you do not see often in downtown Brussels, apart from among the ever courteous Moroccan immigrants.
No one around me was displaying a Z in support of the war effort. On the other hand, there is no mention in social media about any anti-war protests to come in the days or weeks ahead. What we do read and hear is that more than 100 State Duma members have voluntarily signed up to fight and are now at the front in the Donbas. In the broader countryside, ranking officials in the provincial governments have done the same. That is to say, we hear about a personal commitment to defend the Motherland by people in power, which has no equivalent whatsoever in the political life of little Belgium or the great big USA. Why that is so would be an interesting question to put to Mr. Biden.
The Russian state television news programs that I watch provide very little useful information that would allow viewers to understand the overall situation on the ground in the Ukraine war. There is a lot of coverage of destruction in Russian towns near the border with Ukraine coming from Ukrainian artillery and rockets. There is a lot of coverage from isolated areas along the extensive front where Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in vicious battles. Oh, yes, there is a lot of coverage of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and on blackouts in Ukrainian cities. Surely that brings joy to Russia’s super patriots and some comfort to the millions of ordinary Russians who were outraged on viewing the videos posted online a week ago by gleeful Ukrainian soldiers when they killed in cold blood ten or more unarmed Russian POWs lying on the ground before them, in violation of the Geneva Conventions and simple humanity.
On the talk shows, occasionally something valuable to the general public continues to be aired. I think in particular of last night’s Vladimir Solovyov program when panelists raised two very interesting and important issues shedding light on the big picture.
The first concerned the just announced American contract to manufacture an advanced air defense system for delivery to Ukraine in 2024. Since it is increasingly likely that there will be no viable Ukrainian military forces left after the next Russian offensive in December-January, one has to ask about the logic of this latest military contract. The answer, according to the panelist is that this fits the scenario of Washington’s “long war” on Russia: Ukraine may disappear as a power but there will then be another nearby platform for the U.S. war of attrition against Moscow as the decade proceeds. Perhaps Poland? Perhaps Finland? And the logical response of Russia has to be not to enter into any negotiations with Kiev or to consider any halt to military operations since the pause would only be used to regain advantage against Russia as the “long war” continues. Ukraine, and through Ukraine, NATO, must be smashed now.
The second issue worthy of note concerned the resolution passed by the European Parliament a week ago naming Russia as a “state sponsoring terrorism.” In the Russian media, this was initially laughed at. Commentators noted that resolutions of the European Parliament have no legal force and are nothing more than a public relations exercise. However, the panelist said that such an interpretation is incorrect. The resolution of the European Parliament has spawned moves in EU Member States that will have legal force and are highly prejudicial to Russia’s interests. As an example, he pointed to the new French initiative to create a tribunal to hear cases of Russia’s alleged war crimes in its Ukraine campaign. Here again the Russian airtime was given over to explaining why ‘kiss and make up’ with the Western world is not an option for Russia at this time.
It is not my style to refer readers to the interviews or writings of others, but I will break that rule now by offering the link to an invaluable estimate of the balance of military forces between Russia and Ukraine as we head into winter: This major offensive is obliterating Ukraine
In this interview, Colonel Douglas Macgregor explains in detail and with great authority how American intelligence now puts the mustered Russian forces in and near Ukraine at over 500,000 men with vast numbers of tanks, precision missiles, bombers, helicopters and other equipment at the ready. He expects this to move out into the field and overrun the whole Ukrainian military once the ground becomes fully frozen and can support the heavy vehicles and artillery, namely as from mid-December.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2022