In
last two months, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the brink of
collapse. Transformers and exposed lines can be repaired, but as
weather gets colder, more and more demands mean less heat and light and
access to the internet for tens of millions.
In addition, the Russians
hit gas pipelines as well as 10 gas production facilities in the
Kharkiv and Poltava regions, threatening the centralized heating systems
of Ukraine’s cities.
The
electric grid is also under attack. Ukraine claims it has procured
some1,700 generators, yet to be delivered, but the are not nearly
enough, and Ukrainian officials are said to be scouring the world for
many more. The question of secure in-time delivery and qualified electrical workers is yet
to be addressed. If the unmitigated or unthwarted attacks keep up,
survival will be impossible for most people in cities. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/23/ukraine-infrastructure-damage-electricity-water-russia/>
Most
Ukrainian railroads operate at very slow speeds making the vulnerable
to fast raids by Russian attack planes, and drones. Russians have
regularly hit busy train stations in Kiev Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiev and elsewhere.
Since
2/3rd of Ukraine’s trains are diesel, a giant exodus conceivably would
ensue reminiscent of the last vast displacements of civilians in the Second World War with roadways and fields jammed with refugees.
Strategic Paralysis:
Since the 1920s, military planners have envisioned “hitting
an enemy’s great nerve centers” rather than the opposing army, with the
object of making support of the opposing army untenable. American
strategists know that dominance of air, space, and the electronic spectrum are essential features of defeating armed forces of any kind.
Still, American policy makers have refused to transfer requisite arms to Ukraine and the pace has been too little, usually quite late.
To be sure, Ukraine has done amazingly well with Soviet
era S-300 anti-missile defense systems, most recently shooting down 51
of 70 cruise missiles and all five drones in one evening's assault. But, as the Institute of the Study of War puts it, “Russian military is still able to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale,” and at will, <https://www.understandingwar.org/project/ukraine-project> in battles that depend on who is more depleted of which arms, first.
Vastly
increased air defense systems are required. Ukraine received its first
modern air defense weapons only in November with the arrival of
German-American made National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems
as well as the Italian made Aspide air defense system. The NSSAMS shot
down 10 out of 10 Russian missiles on November 15th, in their first week of deployment. The US has also started sending Vietnam-
era Hawk systems that have been languishing in storage for decades.
But more will be required if the Russians field yet more surface to air
weapons.
The
American modern, follow-on anti-missile system are Patriots which the
US has not considered transferring to Ukraine on the grounds that it
takes, purportedly, up to a year to train. Ironically, we are nearly a year into this war. Apparently, the US did not believe Ukraine would last and was offering enough to bleed the Russians, but not enough to quickly and decisively defeat the invaders.
The Seabees could install generation at the Moldovan and
Polish frontier and supply lines to be installed in ground, relatively
secure from air attack. US competence in this area is unproven as Puerto
Rico, Iraq, and Afghanistan demonstrate, but perhaps working with
European partners would garner better results, possibly including emergency exploitation of gas reserves that are the second highest in Europe.
For
now, most urgently, the nuclear plants of Ukraine need to be secured by
an international force, perhaps raised outside of NATO, but from
European forces. If one of those plants goes critical, a continent-wide
disaster is all but assured.