Xiangshan Forum | The situation on the Korean Peninsula is tightening. Expert: Poor control or risk of conflict
The
picture of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter in
the same frame twice recently attracted the attention of all parties.
One appeared at the test site of the new "Mars Cannon-17"
intercontinental ballistic missile test on November 18, and the other
was taken a photo with those who had made contributions to the test
launch of the intercontinental missile. On the back of this
father-daughter relationship is the intensified and increasingly tense
situation on the peninsula of North Korea's nuclear forces.
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On
November 27, 2022 local time, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (middle)
and his daughter (right) waved to scientists, technicians, officials and
other staff involved in the test launch of the Mars-17 intercontinental
ballistic missile. People's Vision
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On
November 18, 2022 local time in Pyongyang, North Korea, North Korea's
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un (right) and his daughter Kim Soo-ai inspected
a missile at Pyongyang International Airport. North Korean state media
said that North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un supervised the launch
of the Mars-17 missile. People's Vision Data Map
At
that time, the Korean Central News Agency reported that the combat
performance of the new Mars Cannon-17 intercontinental ballistic missile
as the world's strongest strategic weapon has been verified. Kim
Jong-un said, "It will resolutely answer the positive confrontation of
the United States with nuclear weapons and positive confrontation." The
extremely dangerous situation is even more urgent for us to
substantially accelerate the escalation of the overwhelming nuclear
containment.
After the large-scale joint
military exercises between the United States and South Korea and North
Korea responded with a series of high-frequency radio guides, the
successful test launch of the Mars Cannon-17 was regarded as a further
warming of the situation on the peninsula. Jiang Xinfeng, a researcher
at the Chinese People's Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences and
an expert at the 2022 Beijing Xiangshan Forum, pointed out to The Paper
(www.thepaper.cn)
that the situation on the peninsula may become tense again, and if it
is not well controlled, there may be a risk of conflict. North Korea has
further strengthened its anti-American stance, and South Korea has
strengthened the trend of the United States, and continues to develop a
comprehensive strategic alliance between South Korea and the United
States.
After the roar of the Mars
Cannon-17, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a statement on
December 1 local time, announcing sanctions on three North Korean
officials related to the development of weapons and ballistic missiles.
On the 2nd, the South Korean government announced that eight additional
individuals and seven units to help North Korea develop nuclear guidance
and circumvent sanctions on the unilateral sanctions list against North
Korea, keeping pace with the United States.
"The
situation on the Korean Peninsula is very serious, which is a trend of
strengthening." Wen Zhengren, chairman of the Sejong Institute of Korea
and vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Leading Group on Nuclear
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, said in response to questions from
The Paper at the 2022 Beijing Xiangshan Forum on December 1 that North
Korea and the United States should exercise restraint, North Korea
should no longer conduct nuclear tests, and South Korea should not
participate in more joint military exercises. Communication has brought
North Korea back to the track of exchange and dialogue.
"Master the world's strongest strategic force"
According
to the Korean Central News Agency, on November 18, the new Mars Gun-17
intercontinental ballistic missile was launched at Pyongyang
International Airport, rising at an altitude of 6040.9 kilometers and a
flight distance of 999.2 kilometers. Kim Jong-un pointed out that
another trusted and most reliable capability of the nuclear armed forces
to ensure that it can contain any nuclear threat has been reaffirmed.
This
is North Korea's launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles after 15
days. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean army and
experts generally believe that the strike range of the new "Mars
Cannon-17" intercontinental ballistic missile launched by North Korea
can cover the whole territory of the United States. North Korea's
missile technology has made considerable progress, and it is speculated
that the possibility of North Korea to carry out the seventh nuclear
test has further increased.
Regarding the
speculation that the United States, Japan and South Korea believe that
North Korea may conduct a seventh nuclear test, Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesman Wang Wenbin said that China hopes that the relevant parties
will face up to the root causes and context of the long-standing
stalemate in the situation on the Korean Peninsula and do something
conducive to enhancing mutual trust and solving the concerns of all
parties in a balanced manner.
Focusing on
the actual capability of the Mars Cannon-17, Ralph Savillesberg, an
associate professor of missile defense at the Dutch National Defense
Academy, told the U.S. media that its payload is about 2 tons and can
reach almost anywhere on the continental United States. If the load is
lighter, it can fly longer. This will be a concern for the United
States, because it can bypass the U.S. missile defense system.
North
Korea's launch prompted U.S. Vice President Harris to convene allies
during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok to hold
an emergency meeting to condemn North Korea's intercontinental ballistic
missile launch with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and
Canada.
It is worth noting that after the
test launch of the Mars Cannon-17, Kim Jong-un not only took a photo
with his daughter with relevant meritorious personnel for the first
time, but also ordered the promotion of the ranks of leading cadres and
scientists of the national defense scientific research department. Kim
Jong-un said in his order that the great cause of nuclear power
construction is the greatest and most important revolutionary
undertaking, and its ultimate goal is to master the world's strongest
strategic force.
North Korea once again
stressed that it would strengthen nuclear power construction, but the
attention of the outside world was focused on the little girl in the
group photo who was held by Kim Jong-un, which was described as "the
General Secretary and his precious daughter". The outside world began to
speculate about the girl's future. According to the analysis in the
journal of Diplomatic Scholar, the girl was still young, and Kim Jong-un
let her appear in these events. Perhaps just want to emphasize that the
country's goal of gaining the world's strongest strategic force is not
only his dream, but also to become the goal of generations to defend
North Korea. Mark.
The U.S. policy towards North Korea is more offensive and adventurous.
Regarding
the test launch of the new "Mars Cannon-17" new intercontinental
ballistic missile, North Korea said that "the military confrontation
between the United States and other hostile forces has arbitrarily
crossed the red line", forcing the situation to approach the dangerous
edge, and the North Korea categorically test-fire under the
circumstances that cannot be ignored.
In
early October, the U.S. and South Korean armies carried out training for
bombing imaginary targets, with the participation of four South Korean
F15 fighters and U.S. F16 fighters. Immediately after that, the two
armies launched a large-scale air exercise "Vigilant Storm" in early
November. Park Chung-tian, Secretary of the Central Committee of the
Workers' Party of Korea, issued a speech saying that the "Warning Storm"
is an aggressive and provocative military exercise of North Korea. If
the United States and South Korea attempt to use force against North
Korea. Force will pay the most terrible price in history.
Even
with repeated warnings from North Korea, the plan for the U.S.-South
Korean military exercise continues to progress, and constantly condemns
North Korea's missile test as a "provocation". According to Yonhap News
Agency, the United States and South Korea discussed the joint submarine
exercise code-named "Silent Shark" in the middle of next year. Unlike
anti-submarine exercises, this exercise simulates the detection,
tracking and strike of enemy submarines. In addition, the South Korean
Marine Corps is also considering sending troops to San Diego,
California, to hold a joint South Korean-American military exercise in
May or October next year. If the plan is implemented, it will be the
first South Korean-US joint performance in the United States.
Jiang
Xinfeng pointed out that North Korea has conducted missile tests many
times, and the aggressive and adventurous policies of the United States
and South Korea towards North Korea have increased. Moreover, after the
Biden administration came to power, it particularly emphasized the
importance of allies and partners, bringing allies into small circles
and intensifying camp confrontations. Especially since this year, the
United States has accelerated the military cooperation between the
United States, Japan and South Korea and held many joint military
exercises, which has not only exacerbated tensions on the peninsula, but
also negatively affected peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific
region.
In November, the heads of the
United States, Japan and South Korea held summits during the ASEAN
summit, and the three parties agreed to share the alarm information of
North Korea's missiles in real time. U.S. President Biden also told
Japan and South Korea that he would strengthen the "extended deterrent
of the United States, including nuclear weapons" and "our cooperation
has become stronger than ever before".
In
the additional sanctions against North Korea on December 1, the U.S.
government specifically mentioned that the measures were carried out in
coordination with South Korea and Japan. The New York Times said that
the U.S., Japanese and South Korean governments believe that North Korea
may conduct its seventh nuclear weapons test at any time. If North
Korea does so, the United States and its allies may find that they are
bound when seeking to punish North Korea. In November, the United
Nations Security Council failed to pass new sanctions against North
Korea, and China and Russia, which have veto power in the Security
Council, opposed the sanctions proposal led by the United States.
Beware of regional arms race
In
the tense atmosphere on the Korean peninsula, the military cooperation
between the United States, Japan and South Korea has rapidly warmed up,
and military exercises with the participation of three sides have been
held many times. Yu Shougen, director of the South Korean East Asia
Research Institute and president of the South Korea-China Global
Association, said in an interview with the media that promoting the
relationship between the South Korean-US-Japanese alliance has a strong
Cold War mentality in the 20th century.
Driven
by the United States, Japan has amplified regional security issues,
created an atmosphere of security anxiety and tension, and is
accelerating the pace of strengthening the expansion of troops. Japanese
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently instructed that the defense fee
should be increased to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. He
said that according to the harsh security environment in East Asia, it
should not be too late. Yomiuri Shimbun reported on November 27 that the
Japanese government and the ruling party have begun to coordinate with
the goal of increasing the total defense cost of the Medium-term Defense
Preparation Plan to 40 trillion in the five years from 2023.
In
addition to the surge in defense costs, the Japanese government also
said that in view of the improved missile capabilities of neighboring
countries, it discussed the existence of a "counterattack capability" to
fight enemy missile launch bases, and intends to include this content
in three security documents, including the national security security
strategy. Asahi Shimbun pointed out that if it has the ability to
counterattack, it will be a major turnaround in Japan's defense policy.
Based on the Japanese-US security treaty, the traditional division of
labor between the U.S. military for attacking the enemy for the "spear"
and the self-defense forces for defending the "shield" will change.
Jiang
Xinfeng said that in order to "fundamentally strengthen its defense
force" in the next five years, Japan will also significantly increase
its military expenditure, which needs to be highly vigilant by the
international community. South Korea is also developing its military
strength, and its military offensive is becoming increasingly prominent.
This may trigger a regional arms race, lead to an increased risk-taking
military confrontation between the parties concerned, and push the
regional situation into a tense confrontation.
South
Korea, in its "National Defense Innovation 4.0" development blueprint
released in July, the South Korean army established the development
concept of "consolidating the national defense, scientific and
technological strength", that is, on the basis of strengthening the
construction of traditional and conventional military forces, develop
and parallel modern new equipment, and expand network forces and space
forces at the same time.
Against the
background of frequent radio guidance from North Korea, South Korea's
ruling National Forces Party proposed in October that South Korea also
needed to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons. According to the Korean
National Daily, South Korea's ruling party advocates raising deterrence
against North Korea and adopting a tough strategy. However, it was
pointed out that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons violates the
principle of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the
deployment depends on the United States. In this regard, South Korean
President Yin Xiyue said that as president, it is not appropriate to
make a public statement on this. He is listening to and considering the
opinions of South Korea and the U.S. government and opposition, but he
showed that North Korea's continuous development and development of
nuclear weapons poses a threat to South Korea and even the world.
"There
should be a dialogue between North Korea and South Korea, and China
should also play its role in bridging the differences between North and
South Korea, or communicating between North and South Korea and North
Korea and the United States." Wen Zhengren said.
State
Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, when attending the 77th United
Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York in
September this year, said that China has always been a mediator on hot
issues. To solve the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, we should
clean the source, adhere to the principle of "two-track parallel
progress" and "phased and synchronous", jointly maintain peace and
stability on the peninsula, and solve the problem through dialogue and
negotiation.