U.S. Priorities in Eastern AfricaBy William Mark Bellamy - December 8, 2022
Ethiopia: The Imperative
No
regional issue is more urgent now than ending the war in Ethiopia’s
Tigray province. The United States lauded the November 3 peace agreement
between Ethiopia and Tigray mediated by the African Union. However, a
just and durable settlement is still far from certain. between Ethiopia
and Tigray mediated by the African Union. However, a just and durable
settlement is still far from certain.
Tigray has essentially
agreed to disband its armed forces and submit to the authority and
administration of Addis Ababa. Ethiopia has promised to allow
humanitarian access and restoration of basic services to Tigray’s
suffering civilians. Negotiations to codify and sequence this transition
are continuing.
Neighboring Eritrea’s intentions are unclear.
Its forces still occupy parts of Tigray, where they have terrorized
civilian inhabitants. Another concern are demands by the Amhara
community, whose militias fought alongside Ethiopian forces, for the
return of parts of Tigray which the Amhara claim. Fearful Tigrayans
worry their leaders may be rounded up and their communities subjected to
collective punishment for a rebellion that nearly succeeded.
Ethiopian
prime minister Abiy Ahmed may be tempted to impose a “victor’s peace”
in Tigray as a warning to other Ethiopian ethnicities not to follow
Tigray’s example. If he does, peace will not return to Tigray, nor will
other restive provinces be brought to heel.
The United States
should focus now on two urgent priorities. First, get Eritrean forces
out of Tigray. That is President Abiy’s responsibility, and the United
States and the African Union should insist he undertake it without
delay.
Second, open Tigray to unhindered international access and
emergency humanitarian aid. The presence of recognized international
aid agencies and peace builders is in Ethiopia’s interest, both as a way
of establishing Ethiopia’s bona fides and of calming Tigrayan
anxieties. The United States, with its unmatched capacity for delivering
humanitarian assistance in conflict zones, could play a role in this
effort.
Washington’s stance on Ethiopia should be clear and
unequivocal: it should support a peaceful reassertion of Ethiopia’s
authority over its sovereign territory but insist on a just and
sustainable peace in Tigray.
Somalia: The Gambit
Somalia
has struggled for decades to attain cohesion, security, and autonomy as
a sovereign state. It survives today as territory loosely held together
by foreign military forces and infusions of international emergency and
development assistance. Somalia’s chronic instability has repercussions
throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond.
Somalia’s new
president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has vowed to restore unity among
Somalia’s competing clans and defeat an entrenched al Shabaab insurgency
that has raged for 15 years. Somali forces, aided by African
peacekeepers and U.S. air power, have recently pushed al Shabaab
jihadists out of some rural strongholds. These are encouraging gains but
could be easily reversed. Al Shabaab has proved to be a patient and
resilient adversary.
Both al Shabaab and Somalia’s elites are
accustomed to stalemate and endless war. Al Shabaab bides its time
confident that, as in Afghanistan, foreign armies will eventually tire
of the dysfunctional government they are supporting and go home. Somali
elites assume the opposite: that regional neighbors and the United
States will never allow al Qaeda-linked extremists to control Somalia.
The
United States and Somalia’s other backers should insist President
Mohamud move beyond the stalemated status quo. With military momentum
now on his side, he should test the notion of a negotiated settlement
with al Shabaab. Chances of success are poor, but Somalia has nothing to
lose by challenging al Shabaab to state its case. If talks ensue,
violence might be reduced and more aid could reach suffering
populations, many now facing famine. If al Shabaab rejects the overture
or scuttles talks, President Mohamud’s appeals for continuing foreign
assistance will carry greater weight.
Kenya: The Opportunity
Newly
elected Kenyan president William Ruto is seeking closer economic
relations with the United States. Washington should welcome this
overture.
Kenya is Washington’s most capable and trusted security partner in East Africa.
It
is also a robust multiparty democracy with a free press, vibrant civil
society, and a respected and independent judiciary. In a hotly contested
election last August, Ruto defeated President Kenyatta’s preferred
successor by a razor-thin margin. Kenyans peacefully accepted the
result.
Pre-pandemic Kenya was a fast-modernizing economy with an
advanced high-tech sector, an inside track to a rapid conversion to
renewable energy, and an expanding and well-educated entrepreneurial
class. These and other asserts are intact, awaiting a post-pandemic
boost.
Ruto, however, already faces headwinds. Inflation and the
war in Ukraine have sent the cost of living sky-high for ordinary
Kenyans. An epic drought has left four million Kenyans without access to
food or clean water. Tough conditions on a include tax increases,
higher electricity fees and an end to food and fuel subsidies. Kenya is
currently struggling to service a $2 billion Eurobond debt due in 2024.
Ruto
has asked voters for another year to deliver on his promises and turned
to the United States for help in repositioning Kenya on its
pre-pandemic growth track.
In response, the United States should
act on many fronts: (1) conclude a free trade agreement with Kenya
before expiry of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025,
(2) move quickly to operationalize the U.S.-Kenya Strategic Trade and
Investment Partnership agreed on this July, and (3) facilitate U.S.
investment in projects to develop Kenya’s renewable energy sector and
help Kenyans adapt to and mitigate the impact of global warming.
Enhanced
trade with and investment in democratic and modernizing partners like
Kenya is a strategic win for the United States in Africa.
William
Mark Bellamy is a senior associate (non-resident) with the Africa
Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, D.C.