The hawks amongst us are hyperventilating as usual over an ever closer relationship between Iran and Russia. Perhaps it’s time for another reincarnation of an axis of evil; or, alternatively, it’s an overdue recognition of a reality which shouldn’t surprise anybody. It may even restore to Russia the role it played (along with Britain, once upon a time) as the guarantor (and beneficiary) of Persian security, internal as well as external. The more important question to ask is what ever-greater Russo-Iranian military collaboration will mean for their neighbours, and for other powers, not to mention for unfinished business in Syria, Iraq, even Lebanon and, still, Libya and Afghanistan. That is to say, in many if not most places between the Eastern Mediterranean and the Hindu Kush. Yet, all things being equal, it would be surprising for Russians to endorse, even now, an independent nuclear weapons capacity for Iran. Maybe a dependent one. But the devil in dependence is certainly in the details. Here is a prediction: this relationship will continue to deepen, and that will be to the ironic benefit of both countries’ enemies, as it will continue to embolden them to take more seriously the need to collaborate amongst themselves whilst at the same time sustaining a basic transactional relationship with both Iran and Russia – quiet though that may continue to be. Far be it from Talleyrand to call this the incubation of a stable balance of power, but call it what you like. If the tragic and unnecessary war in Ukraine has any silver lining at all, it could be the healthy diversification and strengthening of international relationships in this part of the world in a manner that diminishes the likelihood of major power conflict there. © 2022 Talleyrand |