What Lula's return in Brazil means for Asia
Champion of BRICS and Global South faces new risks and opportunities
TOKYO -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is set to be sworn in as Brazil's president for the third time on Sunday, Brasilia time, capping a remarkable political comeback that is likely to reverberate in Asia.
The left-wing icon and former factory worker narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in an election runoff in October. It was only about three years ago that Lula, as he is known, was freed from prison while appealing corruption convictions that were ultimately annulled by the Supreme Court on jurisdictional grounds.
Now Lula, 77, must again steer South America's largest economy -- a sharply divided nation of 215 million people hit by rising poverty and crime. Bolsonaro, dubbed the "Trump of the tropics," has not publicly conceded but has allowed the transition to proceed. His most ardent supporters say the election was stolen and have sought intervention by the military, which detected no signs of fraud.
The international challenges are no less daunting. Much has changed since Lula's first two terms from 2003 to 2010 -- from the polarizing U.S.-China rivalry to the shock waves from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China and Russia, of course, are both members of the BRICS grouping of emerging economies that Lula helped spearhead.
Climate change and deforestation are also urgent priorities. Clearing of Amazon forests accelerated under Bolsonaro, after Lula had overseen a dramatic decline.
At the end of his first two terms, Lula had personal approval ratings near 90%. But can he rebuild a legacy tarnished by the corruption allegations and torn by the upheavals of the past decade? And how will he shape Brazil's ties with Asia?
Here are four things to know.
How will Lula position Brazil in the U.S.-China competition?
Signaling a desire for balance, Lula plans to visit both the U.S. and China within his first three months in office. He has not shied away from criticizing either power.
On the campaign trail, he accused top trade partner China of "occupying" and "dominating" Brazil, tapping public resentment over deindustrialization and a sense that Beijing only gobbles resources. Brazilian government data shows that soybeans, iron ore, oil and beef made up over 83% of exports to China in the first 11 months of 2022.
"Brazil must qualify its economic and trade relations with China," said Karin Costa Vazquez, a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization and researcher at Shanghai's Fudan University. She said Brazil can do that not just by diversifying and adding value to exports but through "a process of reindustrialization that benefits from partnerships with countries like China for the transfer of technologies and investments in sectors with positive spillovers to the environment and the society."
Costa Vazquez stressed that this need "not come at the expense of Brazil's economic and trade relations with the United States."
Trade with the U.S. is more varied. But Lula is a critic of Washington's foreign policy and this year took President Joe Biden to task for not preventing the war in Ukraine. "The United States has a lot of political clout," he told Time magazine, saying Biden could have gone to Moscow for talks and avoided the war, "not incited it."
Lula is expected to carve Brazil's own path without explicitly taking sides, promoting the multilateral organizations he championed in the past while seeking bilateral cooperation.
"Today we are telling the world that Brazil is back," he said in his victory speech, according to a translated transcript, vowing to restore the Brazil that worked for regional integration and helped create the Group of 20 and BRICS.
What does Lula's return mean for BRICS?
Once just an acronym for key emerging markets coined by Goldman Sachs' chief economist, the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- held their first summit as a strategic grouping in 2009. South Africa joined later, making it BRICS.
Lula looks set to push his pet project again, but the dynamics are more complicated. "Lula has stated that BRICS will be at the forefront of his foreign policy," said Costa Vazquez, author of a recent policy paper titled "A Strategic and Futures Agenda for Brazil's Sustainable Development."
"This activism will be welcomed by Beijing, which is advocating for an expansion of the bloc. Lula's politics suggest he will be on board," she said, despite lingering concerns about consensus-based decision-making and balance in a larger group.
Lula's goals might not align with those of China and Russia, however.
"As one of the BRICS founders, Lula will be working to strengthen this format, but for pragmatic rather than ideological reasons," wrote Pavel Tarasenko for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Brazil will support the development of independent financial mechanisms ... but will oppose pitting the BRICS against the West."
High border tensions between India and China could also get in the way.
"Lula's role might be very limited because he really cannot push India and China into putting their relationship back into a positive gear," observed Harsh V. Pant, vice president at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank.
Could Brazil team up with India to mediate the Ukraine conflict?
Some experts see a chance for Brazil, the next G-20 host, to help current chair India push for a cease-fire in Ukraine.
"I think there might be some opening here if the conflict continues to drag" into late 2023, Pant said of that prospect. "I think countries like India and Brazil ... can certainly bring together their weight on this conflict and try to bring various stakeholders together."
Although Brasilia under Bolsonaro voted for United Nations resolutions against Russia while India abstained, it made a point of neutrality and criticized Western sanctions. Lula looks likely to take a similar approach, having argued this year that Putin, Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all bear responsibility.
Pankaj Jha, a professor at India's O.P. Jindal Global University, said Brazil's "position with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is very similar to what India has adopted." Given that Putin is likely to attend the G-20 summit in India in September, Jha said, "there is a possibility of both Brazil and India playing a mediator role."
Still, Jha stressed, "Unless the two sides come to the table, there is no role the mediators can play."
Will Lula be the voice of the Global South?
Lula's previous presidency was known for a "South-South" foreign policy, which promoted cooperation across emerging countries stretching from Latin America to Africa and Asia. Today, many of these countries are reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war and disproportionate climate impacts -- and still feel their interests are overlooked.
"I think certainly there is growing demand from a large part of the world that the concerns of the Global South should be taken into account while formulating the global governance agenda," Pant said, adding that there is "space for this voice to emerge from the Global South."
He said both India and Brazil could play a "very important role," but that will depend on how much other powers take them seriously.
Either way, Costa Vazquez said Lula's government "must be aware of the many opportunities for cooperating with Asia," which would not only help Brazil's economy but also serve the interests of the Global South and wider world.
One example is the rainforest pact Brazil signed with Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo at November's COP27 climate conference in Egypt, where Lula was cheered like a celebrity. The deal aims to set up a funding mechanism to preserve forests, which absorb greenhouse gases.
"There is potential to advance South-South cooperation ... to include other countries with large rainforest areas, including those in the Amazon," Costa Vazquez said.
She also suggested Brazil could embrace India-led international biofuel and solar alliances.
Still, not much is likely to come easy. Lula seemed aware of the hurdles ahead when he said in his victory address, "I know the magnitude of the mission that history has reserved for me."