The Arsenal of Democracy Is Back in Business
Proposed U.S. arms sales to NATO almost doubled this past year as Russia’s aggression spooked the continent.
By Robbie Gramer, a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy.
Ukrainian soldiers load a truck with a U.S.-made FGM-148
Javelin anti-tank missile on its delivery at Kyiv's Boryspil Airport on
Feb. 11. Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
December 29, 2022, 2:04 PM
The
United States nearly doubled the number and price tag of approved arms
sales to NATO allies in 2022 compared with 2021, as alliance members
scramble to stock up on high-end weapons in the wake of Russia’s war in
Ukraine.
In
2021, the U.S. government approved 14 possible major arms sales to NATO
allies worth around $15.5 billion. In 2022, that jumped up to 24
possible major arms sales worth around $28 billion, including $1.24
billion worth of arms sales to expected future NATO member Finland,
according to a Foreign Policy analysis of two years of data from the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
While
not all arms sales will be finalized with the same numbers outlined in
the proposals, the sharp uptick in these plans reflects a massive shift
in Europe’s security landscape after Russia launched its full-scale
invasion of Ukraine in late February. After some European countries
allowed their defense capabilities to atrophy for decades, Russia’s
invasion jolted Europe into a scramble to rapidly boost military
spending.
“Everyone
is trying to lock down arms sales deals as quickly as possible,” said
one Eastern European defense official, who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity. “Russia’s invasion has brought a cold new reality to Europe.”
Some
of the approved U.S. arms sales in 2022 were years in the making, such
as Germany’s plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets in a deal worth around
$8.4 billion. But many other major arms sales were rushed after the war
broke out in Ukraine, as European countries on NATO’s eastern flank
dashed to bulk up their own military capabilities in an effort to
backfill the equipment they shipped to Ukraine and deter Moscow from any
military incursions on alliance territory.
In
early December, for example, the State Department cleared a possible
sale of 116 M1 Abrams battle tanks to Poland, after an initial proposed
plan to sell Poland 250 of such battle tanks was announced in April. The
three Baltic countries on NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank—Latvia,
Lithuania, and Estonia—all pursued plans to procure the types of U.S.
long-range rocket and missile systems that helped Ukraine turn the tide
of the war against Russia in recent months. The State Department
approved a plan to sell up to six HIMARS rocket launchers to Estonia in
July under its foreign military sales program, in a deal worth around
$500 million. It approved a similar sale to Lithuania in November. A
U.S. deal to sell HIMARS to Latvia is expected to be announced in early
2023, according to several U.S. and European officials familiar with the
matter.
The
data showcases how the United States remains a major arms supplier for
allies in Europe in the short term, even as Europe’s own defense
industries scramble to meet wartime demands for conventional arms and
ammunition. The flurry of new defense sales comes amid growing concerns
in the West that NATO countries are running out of excess military
equipment and munitions to send to Ukraine to aid its fight against the
Russian invasion. Defense officials and experts say Europe’s defense
industrial base is struggling to rapidly expand its capacities to keep
pace with the new demand.
“Europeans
are getting extremely worried about not having enough of their own
military equipment after sending so much to Ukraine,” said Rachel Rizzo,
a scholar at the Atlantic Council. “The United States certainly plays a
role in helping here, which is evidenced by the increase in arms sales
in 2022 compared to 2021. However, it also highlights that Europe needs
to get its act together in the security and defense realm.”
At
this phase in the war, Ukraine is firing some 4,000 to 7,000 rounds of
artillery a day, rapidly using up munitions delivered by the West
shortly after they arrive. The United States has sent some 806,000 155
mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since Russia began its invasion. By
comparison, the United Kingdom, which has one of Europe’s strongest
militaries, has sent around 16,000 rounds to Ukraine as it grapples with
its own supply shortages. In November, the British government notified
one of the country’s top defense industry firms to expand its production of artillery shells.
On the other side of the conflict, however, Russia’s battered forces are also running low
on ammunition after a series of stinging battlefield defeats that
pushed them farther back into eastern Ukraine before winter set in.
Moscow has sought to backfill its own dwindling munitions supplies
through deals with Iran and North Korea. It has also taken some 20,000
tons of ammunition from neighboring Belarus, Lithuania’s defense
minister, Arvydas Anusauskas, told Defense News in an interview
this week. Under President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus has served as
an accomplice and logistical staging ground for Russia’s invasion.
Successive
U.S. presidents have long called on NATO’s European allies to boost
their defense spending, a campaign that at times caused rifts within the
alliance and diplomatic headaches, particularly under former U.S.
President Donald Trump. But Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine and
illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 slowed the decline in Europe’s
overall defense spending. Its full-fledged invasion in February has
completely reversed the trend, as more NATO allies announce massive
increases in defense budgets.
In
2014, just four NATO allies—the United States, United Kingdom, Estonia,
and Greece—met the alliance’s benchmark of spending 2 percent of GDP on
defense. By 2022, 10 of NATO’s 30 members are slated to spend at least 2
percent of GDP on defense. Some countries are going even further:
Estonia pledged to boost its annual defense budget by 42 percent in 2023
and committed to spending 3 percent of its GDP on defense.
Finland
and Sweden, which declared their intent to join NATO this year after
Russia’s invasion, have also announced plans to increase their defense
spending. Finland already spends around 2 percent of GDP on defense,
while the Swedish government has unveiled plans to increase defense
spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2023. The two Nordic countries’
accession to NATO has been delayed by Turkey, but U.S. and NATO defense officials say they expect Turkey to approve their membership by next year.
Robbie Gramer is a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy. Twitter: @RobbieGramer