Putin’s Recognizes Separatists, Orders Troops Across Border
So far, Biden’s slip of the tongue in January about a possible Russian “minor incursion” has proved to be the most accurate of all U.S. intelligence predictions.
Although it may not fit the predicted schedule exactly, a Russian invasion of sorts is happening in Ukraine. It follows a frantic 24 hours of international diplomacy and Kremlin theater which led to Russian President Vladimir Putin recognizing the self-declared republics in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s Donbass region as independent states. Russian troops—which the Kremlin claims are “peacekeepers”—are now moving into the region on Putin’s orders.
The recognition is not expected to cover the entirety of the two provinces, two-thirds of which are still under Kyiv’s control, but rather the de facto borders “established to date” by pro-Russian separatists, a senior Russian senator told state media.
In moving more Russian forces into territory already under pro-Russian control, it’s not immediately clear how much this will change things on the ground. What is clear is that the Minsk accords—which sought to enshrine Donetsk and Luhansk’s autonomy within a Ukrainian state—are now in tatters.
Despite that reality, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday reiterated his commitment to diplomacy while striking a defiant tone. “We are committed to the peaceful and diplomatic path, we will follow it and only it,” Zelensky said. “But we are on our own land, we are not afraid of anything and anybody, we owe nothing to no one, and we will give nothing to no one.”
The United States has reacted with dismay, immediately banning U.S. citizens doing business with the would-be republics. Now is the test of whether sweeping sanctions, threatened for such an occasion, will be imposed and whether European countries are willing to go along with them, given the immediate risks to their economies.
A senior Biden administration official, speaking to reporters on Monday evening, indicated that that the White House would continue with a light-touch approach. “Russian troops moving into Donbass would not itself be a new step. Russia has had forces in the Donbass region for the past eight years,” the official said.
Nevertheless, more sanctions appear to be on the way. Speaking late Sunday, a White House official said the Biden administration was “coordinating with allies and partners” on the announcement, expected today.
As my colleagues Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch, and Amy Mackinnon report, diplomacy is still being held out as an option between the United States and Russia, with no word yet on whether a Biden-Putin summit will be cancelled in the wake of Monday’s actions.
Those wondering what could happen next may find an imperfect parallel in South Ossetia, a breakaway region in Georgia that Russia recognized as independent in 2008 (in fact, Monday’s statement closely matches the Kremlin’s 2008 wording). The muted international reaction to that episode is something that cannot be repeated, Natia Seskuria argues today in Foreign Policy.