If
most of us don’t think much about what happens above our heads in
space, the Russian military just blew up that complacency. On Nov. 15,
Russia conducted a direct-ascent anti-satellite test that blew
Kosmos-1408, a derelict Russian spy satellite, into more than 1,500
pieces of space debris. These pieces of satellite, in turn, have the
potential to “generate hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller
orbital debris,” according to U.S. Space Command. The successful test of
Moscow’s new anti-satellite weapons system is a major escalation of
military operations in space, launching a new category of weapons
technology not previously used by Russia. Moscow has demonstrated its
improved capability to destroy satellites from the ground without
warning.
The new weapon, known as PL-19 Nudol, has been in
development for years by Almaz-Antey, a Russian defense contractor under
U.S. and European Union sanctionsintroduced after Russia’s 2014
invasion of Ukraine. The weapon has two key capabilities: It can operate
as an anti-ballistic missile system in Earth’s upper atmosphere but can
also reach space to destroy satellites in low Earth orbit. Capable of
being deployed from a mobile launch platform, the missile carries a
so-called kinetic kill vehicle that intercepts the satellite target. The
resulting collision is sufficient to smash the satellite into pieces
even without a conventional explosive payload.
By creating a new
field of dangerous space debris in low Earth orbit, the Russian test
also poses a threat to civilian and military satellites as well as other
orbital structures, such as the International Space Station (ISS).
Within hours of the incident, government agencies and astrophysicists
warned that new debris could collide with spacecraft large and small for
decades to come. The hazard to other space assets was only increased by
targeting Kosmos-1408: At almost 5,000 pounds, it’s a giant by
satellite standards. Its orbit—now the orbit of a dispersing cloud of
debris—is less than 60 miles above the ISS and less than 60 miles below
several commercial constellations, including SpaceX’s Starlink fleet.
Collision risks to ongoing space operations were immediate, endangering
U.S., Russian, and German personnel aboard the ISS as well as Chinese
personnel aboard Beijing’s Tiangong space station.
Especially
alarming was the absence of any notice given by the Kremlin to the rest
of the world in advance of the test. Apparently, not even Russia’s own
personnel aboard the ISS received any warning. “This is pitiful that the
Russians would do this,” NASA administrator Bill Nelson told the New
York Times. Immediately after the satellite was destroyed, NASA told ISS
personnel to conduct shelter-in-place drills to prepare for a potential
collision. NASA implemented further procedures to duck and dodge danger
based on a calculation that the ISS would pass “through or near the
cloud every 90 minutes.” Likewise, Russia’s test debris’ close proximity
to SpaceX’s satellites requires them to take evasive action.
The
event is a call to action on two fronts: ensuring the safe use of
near-Earth orbit and dealing with the dangerous escalation of
anti-satellite technology.
The U.S. State Department condemned
the test as reckless, but Washington has not yet taken or proposed any
further action. This dithering is unfortunate, given the test is part of
a wider complex of intimidation by Moscow, including military
brinkmanship in Ukraine and the weaponization of energy, cyber, and
migration issues. As U.S. President Joe Biden engages with Russian
President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, Moscow’s ongoing destabilization
of space must also be on the agenda.
Bilateral U.S.-Russian
engagement aside, the establishment of regulatory norms for space
activities is a global challenge requiring a multilateral approach. So
far, U.S. diplomacy seems stuck in neutral. Russia and China, meanwhile,
continue to try to exempt themselves from military constraints in
space. Some experts have surmised that the timing of the Russian space
weapon test could be an effort to demonstrate a new strategic capability
before the establishment of norms could limit future testing.
Washington,
working with allies and partners, should seize the Russian test as an
opportunity to galvanize and shape international opinion on space
sustainability going forward. Leveraging the United States’ extensive
convening power—as demonstrated by the Biden administration’s recent
Summit for Democracy—Washington should call for a global summit for
space security in 2022.
Pressure is already building on the
administration. Recognizing the dual danger demonstrated by Russia’s
anti-satellite test, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators called on the
U.S. National Space Council to initiate international discussions on a
set of norms for “responsible behavior in space.” On Dec. 1, U.S. Vice
President Kamala Harris called for “rules and norms on safety and
security, on transparency and cooperation, to include military,
commercial, and civil space activity” on the same day the White House
unveiled a new U.S. Space Priorities Framework. That document, however,
did not define any new international mechanisms to achieve those
objectives beyond boilerplate language about “cooperation” with “allies
and partners” and the need to engage “with strategic competitors in
order to enhance stability in outer space.” These cut-and-paste phrases
usually mean no real action is forthcoming. There is little indication
the administration has sufficiently prioritized the coming decade’s
growing space security challenges.
Fortunately, recent progress
on another transnational threat—climate change—offers valuable insight
on how to proceed. Action was possible when citizens, scientists,
activist groups, and governments around the world came together to
combine compelling evidence with powerful public diplomacy. The
combination of proof of harm, public awareness, and global diplomacy led
to progress. The same formula and format—a global summit—can be used to
address the urgent need to establish global norms for space’s use.
Just
as one country’s unilateral actions can destroy the safe and peaceful
use of the Earth’s orbit, cooperation on common rules and norms on the
beneficial use of space is the only rational path. As space becomes more
intensely used, geopolitical tensions can escalate on many fronts: This
week, Beijing lodged a United Nations complaint against SpaceX,
claiming its space station needed to avoid Starlink spacecraft twice
this year.
The United States has the convening power, strategic
vision, and sense of responsibility to rally nations and multilateral
institutions to deal with global issues before they reach crisis levels.
It would be disastrous if the world’s major space powers—Russia, China,
and the United States—got caught in such a spiral of misjudgment and
distrust that they saw preemptive military escalation as their only
option. The right consequence from the Russian test is for the Biden
administration to move establishing space norms to the top of its
international agenda. A good place to start would be a global summit for
space security in 2022.