In response to an incrementally increasing existential threat the
Saudi crown prince and defence minister Mohammed bin Salman has embarked
on a programme of missile building that, as it continues, raises the
stakes for a Biden White House struggling to find a way back to the
nuclear deal Donald Trump pulled out of three years ago.
In late 2018, Dr Jeffrey Lewis a nuclear weapons expert at the
Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey analysed
satellite images that strongly indicated the Saudis were building a
ballistic missiles factory south of Riyadh. He was quoted in a Washington Post
article, published in January 2019, as saying “The possibility that
Saudi Arabia is going to build longer-range missiles and seek nuclear
weapons — we imagine that they can’t. But we are maybe underestimating
their desire and their capabilities.”
In late December of last year came confirmation from Dr Lewis that
the missile plant was indeed in operation. He had examined satellite
images from November and notes in his blog Arms Control Wonk:
New satellite images suggest Saudi Arabia is now producing
ballistic missiles at the site. The key piece of evidence is that the
facility is operating a “burn pit” to dispose of solid-propellant
leftover from the production of ballistic missiles.
Working with CNN
and Planet, the company that captured the satellite images, he was able
to confirm not only that the Saudis were building their own missiles,
they were doing it with the assistance of the Chinese. As he put it in
his blog, Zach Cohen, the CNN reporter assigned to the story:
took the open source information and ran with it, getting three
sources to describe a classified assessment that “Saudi Arabia is now
actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with the help of
China.” That’s a huge thing to get officials to confirm, given how
tightly held intelligence about Saudi Arabia’s missile programs has
been.
As Riyadh watches from the sidelines, the JCPOA talks in Vienna
are continuing. Recent statements from Iran’s foreign minister Hossein
Amirabdollahian will do nothing to ease their concern that Joe Biden,
like President Obama before him, is prepared to put aside the ballistic
missiles issue in order to massage the JCPOA back to life.
On 9 January the foreign minister tweeted:
Iran’s initiatives & the talks done so far, have put us on
the right direction. We’re close to a good agreement, but whether or not
we can reach that in the short term must be pursued on the other side.
If they have good faith & serious will, everything is clear.
Cold comfort to MbS but a prod, if one was needed, to crack on with
his missile building programme. And just to show how adept the Chinese
and the Iranians are at playing both sides of the street Mr
Amirabdollahian announced a visit to Beijing at the end of this week to discuss the 25 year cooperation deal the two countries signed in March of last year.