Analysis: China's ex-Washington envoy resurfaces with an important message
Cui Tiankai says war of anger does not help the national cause
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer
January 13, 2022
Katsuji
Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff writer and editorial writer at
Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as
China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda
International Journalist prize.
After disappearing from the
public eye half a year ago, Chinese diplomat Cui Tiankai made a sudden
appearance last month in Beijing, delivering what would become a widely
talked about keynote speech.
The former Chinese ambassador to the
U.S. sounded alarm bells about Beijing's current inability to fully cope
with Washington's strategic and extensive measures to contain his
country.
It was a
dig at China's recent "wolf warrior diplomacy," hinting that it is being
swayed by U.S. provocations. Peppered with words like "careless" and
"incompetent," the remarks have attracted tremendous interest in Chinese
political and diplomatic circles.
Cui's keynote came on Dec. 20,
delivered to a symposium co-hosted by the China Institute of
International Studies, a think tank under the Foreign Ministry. The
venue -- the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, which is used to
entertain foreign dignitaries -- underscored the prestige of the event.
"We
need to be clearheaded and fully prepared to deal with the twists and
turns of China-U.S. relations and even the roller-coaster scenario in
the future, and resolutely safeguard our sovereignty, security and
development interests," Cui warned. "In principle, we should not fight a
war we are not prepared for, a war we are not sure of winning, a war of
anger and attrition.
Cui Tiankai says racism is a feature of
American policy toward China, "although people don't say it." (File
photo by Reuters)
"Every ounce of our peoples' gains has been hard-won, and we must not
allow them to be plundered by anyone or suffer losses due to our own
carelessness, laziness and incompetence."
In a not-so-subtle jab
at China's wolf warriors, Cui added, "In the face of complex situations,
we must always have the country at large in mind, and not always think
about being an internet celebrity."
Naturally, Cui showed
deference to President Xi Jinping by repeatedly mentioning his name. The
main thrust of the speech is a criticism of the U.S., including a
controversial analysis that racism features in American policy toward
China, "although people don't say it," he noted.
But a deeper look
at Cui's remarks shows the diplomat clearly differs from other Chinese
government bureaucrats who play up to the top leader.
Cui presented a sharp analysis of problems with China's diplomacy.
Some
in China have noted that he speaks in a manner somewhat similar to
Zhang Wenhong, a university professor widely revered as an authority on
measures against infectious diseases.
Zhang came under a barrage
of criticism about half a year ago after publicly proposing an early
switch from a "zero COVID" policy to "living with COVID" based on
scientific knowledge.
Zhang Wenhong speaks at Shanghai Jiao Tong
University in September 2020. Zhang has since come under criticism for
publicly proposing a "living with COVID" policy. (File photo by AP)
Zhang Wenhong speaks at Shanghai Jiao Tong
University in September 2020. Zhang has since come under criticism for
publicly proposing a "living with COVID" policy. (File photo by AP)
China's current tough line on the U.S. has been spearheaded by top
diplomat Yang Jiechi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's powerful
Politburo, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
But it is Xi who makes
the final decision on all important policies. Therefore, while
reflecting on his own mistakes as the former ambassador to Washington,
Cui was also making a veiled criticism of Xi's tough line on the U.S.
Cui's
message was that China's current diplomacy is missing the grand picture
as it busily engages in a war of words. The goal should not be a
tit-for-tat slapping of sanctions but "to realize the people's longing
for a better life and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," the
veteran diplomat suggested.
Rather than shoot back at the U.S.
with retaliatory sanctions, which are largely a save-face measure, it
would be more prudent, Cui's message indicated, to establish an
environment that allows American companies to remain in China and
flourish, rather than allow the U.S. government to leash tech companies
like Apple and Intel and take them back home.
Cui is well-versed
in U.S. affairs. He became the longest-serving Chinese ambassador to the
U.S. in modern Chinese history. He held the post for as many as eight
years. He also once served as China's ambassador to Japan.
During
his time as China's representative in Washington, he observed changes in
the U.S.'s China policy under three successive presidents -- Barack
Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Cui was present at the March
2021 clash of U.S. and Chinese diplomats in Alaska, the first
face-to-face engagement under the Biden administration.
"There's
no room for China to compromise or make concessions" on core interests,
Cui told reporters on the sidelines. "That is the position we will make
clear in this meeting."
Yang Jiechi, center, director of the Central
Foreign Affairs Commission Office, and Wang Yi, to Yang's right,
China's state councilor and foreign minister, sit down with their U.S.
counterparts in Anchorage, Alaska, the U.S., on March 18, 2021.
© Reuters
What is noteworthy is that Cui is one of Xi's most trusted, favorite retainers.
In
August 2011, then-Vice President Biden visited China. He stayed in
Beijing for three days, holding talks with then-Vice President Xi. He
later traveled to Sichuan Province. His six-day China trip was a relaxed
one. Xi accompanied Biden on his long tour as his Chinese counterpart.
Cui, who was then serving as vice foreign minister, accompanied Xi and Biden as a de facto interpreter.
"Xi's
confidence in Cui strengthened through this long journey, leading to
Cui being put in charge of diplomacy toward the U.S. in Washington for
an unusually long period, all under Xi," a source said.
But by the
time Cui left Washington in June, relations between the U.S. and China
had plunged into crisis. The situation was reportedly so harsh that he
was even denied meetings with major U.S. figures to bid them farewell
before leaving Washington.
That Cui returned to the public to
deliver this message is noteworthy. Especially notable are his words
about not fighting a war China is not prepared for, a war China is not
sure it can win, a war of anger and attrition.
First and foremost, this means China should avoid actual warfare with the U.S.
But
what Cui actually wanted to do was give candid advice about China's
current diplomatic strategy toward the U.S. He indicated that China has
locked itself in a "war of attrition" without making careful
preparations, driven by emotion.
What is this war of attrition, then?
Xi Jinping, Joe Biden and their interpreters
walk across the Dujiangyan Irrigation system in Dujiangyan, outside
Chengdu, in China's southwestern province of Sichuan, on Aug. 21, 2011.
© AFP/Jiji
Cui's warning reflects a strong sense of caution over the
international coalition against China that has been formed by the Biden
administration's strengthening of ties with allies such as Britain,
Japan, Australia and Chinese neighbor India.
Like the ABCD
encirclement -- a series of embargoes against Japan by America, Britain,
China and the Dutch before World War II -- the international coalition
against China could deliver a severe blow.
Waiting ahead could be a
battle for technological supremacy and divisions in supply chains,
which could be a drag on the Chinese economy over the medium to long
term.
Diplomacy and the economy are closely linked. Xi has said,
"Time and momentum are on our side," and remains bullish. But it is also
true that the Biden administration's China strategy is biting, as
evidenced by Cui's do-or-die candid advice.
It is unclear if Cui's
words will trigger a policy change, but the fact that there is an
atmosphere in which remarks like Cui's are allowed -- at least in
moderation -- and widely spread already represents a slight change. This
also applies to remarks on the economy.
For Xi, who aims to
secure a third term as leader at the party's National Congress this
coming autumn, the biggest challenges remain the China-U.S. relationship
and the slowing economy. All eyes will be on his every move.