As CSTO Troops Leave, Kazakhstan Faces the Unknown
A contingent of troops dispatched by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will begin withdrawing from Kazakhstan today, less than a week after they were deployed by the Russian-led organization to help quell rare protests over fuel prices across the country.
The relatively swift withdrawal of the 2,500 troops allays fears that the mostly-Russian force would continue and grow within the country. It also helps President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev regain an air of legitimacy after calling for foreign help last week.
Tokayev blames the protests that engulfed the country on “terrorists,” while Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested there were outside influences instigating a so-called “color revolution.” Erica Marat and Assel Tutumlu, writing in Foreign Policy on Tuesday, rejected that notion.
As well as arresting more than 10,000 people, it appears Tokayev is now cleaning house behind the scenes, targeting associates and family members of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. On Tuesday, Tokayev appeared to order a shakedown of Nazarbayev-connected businesses, announcing that a yet to be disclosed group of companies would be expected to pay “significant and regular contributions” to a special social fund.
Fears of a crackdown has caused Kazakhstan’s well-heeled to flee, with private jet tracking data showing several planes leaving the country headed to destinations including London, Dubai, and Geneva.
While Tokayev attempts to assert himself domestically, his wider loyalties following his request for CSTO support last week are now an open question. The security bloc’s rapid acceptance of Tokayev’s plea marks a turning point for the Russian-led group, which had previously rejected requests from Armenia and Kyrgyzstan for outside support.
“The CSTO has always been viewed as a fig leaf for Russia and patronized as a talking shop, as something that lacks capacity,” Alexander Cooley, a Central Asia expert and professor of political science at Barnard College told Foreign Policy. “Well, here you have a case where not only was there an intervention, but the speed at which the decision was reached was really jarring.”
For Cooley, the practical role of the troops—a relatively small group mostly charged at securing key infrastructure—is less important than the political role: “This is really about the Kremlin strongly backing Tokayev in this internal standoff. Sending a clear signal to Kazakh security services that might be wavering that now the Kremlin backs authority and the government. Its role as a kind of regime preservation vehicle is now clear.”
Whether Kazakhstan moves deeper into Russia’s orbit after this episode is unclear, Cooley sees Russia’s intervention as opportunistic, but with a potential payoff down the line once the focus moves elsewhere. “They saw they could put Tokayev in a type of political debt, and we don’t know how that’s going to be repaid.”