The attack on Abu Dhabi’s airport and oil industry killed three people and injured six others
In response to the attack and the Houthi threats of further actions UAE bourses showed initial losses on Tuesday. That underlines what Kristian Coates Ulrichsen told us in our latest podcast
about the vulnerability that Emiratis feel as the nuclear talks
proceed. He was speaking about the UAE’s diplomatic initiatives towards
Iran and its attempts to de-escalate tensions in the run up to JCPOA
negotiations. In that regard he noted the 2019 targeting of Saudi Aramco
facilities in the Eastern Province as well as attacks on vessels in the
Persian Gulf:
I think, once we had those attacks on energy and maritime
targets, they were so precise and so effective, especially the attack on
Abqaiq, that I think people in the UAE thought well, they can do that,
with this degree of precision, if they took out some infrastructure in
Dubai or in Abu Dhabi, that would really damage the image of the UAE, as
a safe place to live and work in an otherwise unstable region.
Ulrichsen also makes the point that the lack of a robust response
from the United States to the strikes and indeed US attitudes for more
than a decade have convinced Saudi Arabia and the UAE that the
Washington is no longer the guarantor of their security:
The direction of travel under three successive administrations,
Obama, Trump and Biden, is that the US is going to be perhaps
disengaging, maybe not so much on the ground, but at least disengaging
in terms of intent, and is perhaps less reliable, more unpredictable.
Reuters reported
that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had condemned the attack
while White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said
Washington would work to hold the Houthis accountable.
Anwar Gargash was the first senior Emirati to respond via Twitter.
Though there is speculation that the drones came from Iran he chose to
focus on the Houthis and reassurance that security was not compromised.
Gargash condemned a "vicious attack on some civilian facilities,"
adding "the tampering of the region's security by terrorist militias is
too weak to affect the stability and safety in which we live."
Monday’s strike was met the following day with a coalition bombing on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa and more actions on both sides can be expected unless cool heads prevail.
The question is what provoked the Houthis as this moment to up the
ante so significantly? The answer lies in the setbacks they are
experiencing as a result of a UAE-backed initiative on behalf of the IRG
(Internationally Recognised Government) successfully to retake Shabwah Governorate which to its north borders on the contested and strategically important province of Marib.
The al-Amaliqa brigade, an elite force armed, trained and paid for by
the Emiratis was instrumental in driving the Houthis out of Shabwah.
And there are indications that the offensive could continue into Marib
which is besieged and in danger of falling to the Houthis.
If Iran is categorically proven to be the source of the drones then
all the UAE’s efforts at de-escalation will have been effectively blown
out of the water potentially dashing hopes in the Gulf that the Vienna
talks can be concluded with an agreement of sorts that meets at least
some of the security needs of the Saudis and the Emiratis.
That may be one reason why the UAE is not in a rush to judgement and
the pointing of fingers at Tehran. And should any thoughts of an
Emirati-backed push into Marib be delayed or abandoned, that may be
enough to satisfy the Houthis and defuse what is at the moment an
extremely volatile and dangerous situation.