With the West not intending to send troops into Ukraine should war break out with Russia, that’s turning the focus to the other bits of the deterrent toolkit.
The U.S. is likely to present Russia this week with written proposals aimed at addressing some of Moscow’s security concerns. But whatever those proposals are, they will fall short of Russia’s key demand that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO.
Key reading:
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Blinken Says Too Early to Step Up Russia Sanctions Over Ukraine
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U.S. Orders Families of Diplomats Out of Ukraine Citing War Risk
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Europe’s Exposure to Russia Leaves Economy Sweating on Sanctions
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Why Tensions Between Ukraine and Putin’s Russia Are So Hard to Defuse
That takes us back to penalties — specifically, sanctions. Even there, the options are limited.
For one thing, there’s the question of how, and when, sanctions should be used.
European nations say they are not designed to be a deterrent. That’s why, as European Union foreign ministers meet today in Brussels, they’re wary of discussing details of potential sanctions: They don’t want to tip off Russia on what it could be facing. That’s despite U.S. pressure to agree soon on a package that could be deployed in the event of an invasion (Russia denies it plans one).
There are also differences between nations on how far any sanctions should go. Some big nations in western Europe are concerned about the collateral hit to their economies. And there’s the risk that Russia turns off essential gas supplies to Europe as a retaliation.
Sanctions are a blunt tool at best. They can hurt ordinary people rather than those they target. How much they compel a change in political behavior is doubtful.
Still, Moscow is adept at exploiting differences and the wrangling over sanctions could yet undercut the overall messages of unity on Ukraine. If sanctions are going to be the main option for dealing with Russia, the sooner any disagreements between the U.S. and its allies are dealt with, the better. — Rosalind Mathieson