The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani meeting then Vice President Biden in February 2015 [photo credit: @VP44]
Still the two leaders will be satisfied that the president’s National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with ambassadors from both countries
on Monday
to jointly condemn Yemen rebel Houthi attacks on “civilian targets in
the UAE and Saudi Arabia that have resulted in civilian casualties in
both countries.” As the White House statement describing the meeting put
it: “The Ambassadors and Mr. Sullivan discussed joint efforts to hold
the Houthis accountable.” No mention was made of coalition responses to
those attacks that led to the bombing of a migrant detention centre in
Houthi-held territory killing at least 70 and the destruction of a
communications building in Hudaydah that killed three children playing
in the neighbourhood of the building and knocked out the internet in
Yemen for four days (see yesterday’s newsletter.)
Emir Tamim and President Biden have plenty to talk about. Top of the list
is the proposition that gas-rich Qatar provide LNG to Europe should
Vladimir Putin, in his standoff with NATO and the West, attempt to cut
gas supplies. The support that Doha gave Biden after the abrupt and
dismal American withdrawal from Afghanistan will be acknowledged. And
as the president wrestles with whether to unfreeze US$8 billion of
assets to the Taliban, there may be a role for Qatar to play as a useful
intermediary in much the same way it provides support and funding to
Hamas in Gaza, achieving a modicum of stability while Israel
appreciatively looks the other way.
Other agenda items will include promoting MENA security and
prosperity and strengthening investment and commercial ties between the
two countries. Concluding the statement on the coming visit, White House
Press Secretary Jan Psaki fulsomely noted: “The President will also
thank Amir Tamim for Qatar’s extraordinary and ongoing effort to ensure
the safe transit from Afghanistan of U.S. citizens, lawful permanent
residents, and Afghan partners.”
It isn’t much of a stretch to expect that the two leaders will also
discuss Iran and the ongoing JCPOA talks in Vienna. At the very least
President Biden will be wise to use his time with Tamim to gauge the
mood of the Gulf towards the JCPOA and Iran in the wake of the drone and
ballistic missile attacks launched by the Houthis. He may also want to
prevail on Qatar to assist in American efforts to help end the now seven
year war which has devastated Yemen and its 30 million people.
The emir has a high standing in Washington thanks in large part to
the manner in which he conducted Qatar’s side of the Gulf feud that
pitted Doha against fellow GCC partners Saudi Arabia, the UAE and
Bahrain as well as Egypt - the so-called Quartet. In a fake news
campaign launched in Abu Dhabi in 2017, the Qataris were accused of
funding and supporting terrorism. A land, air and sea blockade was
launched with the initial backing
of then President Trump. Not only did Tamim quickly get Trump back
onside, he oversaw diplomatic and economic initiatives that swiftly
ameliorated the worst impacts of the blockade. And as Trump pushed
for the blockade to end having belatedly realised that the only winner
was Iran, Tamim continually took the high road while his enemies did
everything they could to bring him down including a risible attempt
to set up a 'government in exile' with a disgruntled member of the
ruling family. Patient diplomacy earned Doha the accolade of being the
adult in the room and saw the eventual end of the dispute
in January of last year with all of the Quartet’s original demands
firmly rebuffed and Qatar emerging the clear winner (though Tamim was
careful to avoid any triumphalism.)
Still Qatar will not want to hitch its wagons too closely to the
Biden administration. The Trump presidency with all its bombast, erratic
behaviour and transactional ploys did not in the end prove the good fit
that MbS and MbZ may have presumed it would be. The failure of America
to back the UAE and Saudi Arabia with a military response after attacks
on shipping in the Gulf and on Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019 was a
jolt and throughout the GCC the prevailing sense is that regardless of
who is in the White House America is no longer the guarantor of security
it once was. Added to that is the not unlikely possibility that the
supremely vindictive Trump may return to the White House in 2025. Best
for Qatar to continue to hew to wasatiyyah – the middle way.