Indomie diplomacy: How inflation drove Jokowi to Kyiv and Moscow
From noodles to palm oil, high prices raise stakes of diplomacy for G-20 chair
JAKARTA -- When news broke that President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo supposedly secured Russian President Vladimir Putin's agreement to open a sea route for Ukrainian wheat exports, many Indonesians uttered one word: "Indomie."
One popular tweet called the Indonesian leader's potentially dangerous trips with first lady Iriana to Kyiv and Moscow last week "Indomie missions." Another said, "Jokowi is going all the way to Moscow just for Indomie." Despite the President himself naming his trip a peace mission, "the things Indonesians do for Indomie," said another.
Indomie, the brand of instant noodles produced by a unit of local conglomerate Salim Group, is a favorite staple to many Indonesians -- from those frequenting street stalls to students studying abroad. It's savory and comes in different flavorings and, more importantly, is affordable.
The price of a small pack of Indomie, however, recently rose to around 3,500 rupiah (23 cents) from 3,000 rupiah in local warungs, or kiosks -- the latest sign of how inflation is taking a grip on Southeast Asia's largest economy amid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Before Russia launched its attacks on Ukraine, Indonesia was the second largest importer of Ukrainian wheat, a main ingredient of instant noodles like Indomie. With Ukraine and Russia being top sunflower oil exporters, the war also has wreaked havoc on the global vegetable oil supply, causing Indonesia's palm oil prices to soar and sparking a cooking oil crisis in the top palm oil-producing nation.
And farmers are complaining about rising prices of fertilizer, of which Russia is a top global supplier, posing further threats of food inflation. Indonesia's consumer price index rose 4.35% in June, the biggest year-on-year climb in five years.
It is in the middle of all of this that Widodo, also the current chair of the Group of 20 economies, headed to Kyiv and Moscow -- becoming the first Asian leader to do so since the war broke out. He said he discussed the humanitarian issue, as well as the global food crisis in his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and later with Putin. Widodo also offered to "bridge communications" between the warring leaders.
"Indonesia's top goal is ... for the war to end in Ukraine," Andrew Matong, international relations researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said on Friday. "If that can't be achieved, the second goal -- and the most achievable -- is to find a way for Russian and Ukrainian food and fertilizer supplies to be reintegrated into the global supply chain."
Matong sees the latter as part of economic diplomacy that has been at the core of Widodo's foreign policy. The president has been notably indifferent toward international affairs during much of his eight-year presidency, but the stakes are higher now with Indonesia chairing the G-20 this year and Western leaders threatening to boycott the summit over Russia's participation.
Widodo has invited both Putin and Zelenskyy to the G-20 summit in Bali. That and his recent visits to Kyiv and Moscow reflect Indonesia's long-held independent and active foreign policy, despite what many see as a mistaken form of neutrality in the case of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The Indonesian government has called for an end to the war and for peace ... of course President Zelenskyy would agree to that," Dino Patti Djalal, former Indonesian ambassador to the U.S., pointed out. "That message should not be addressed to Ukraine, but to the party that launched the war -- namely Putin."
Local political analysts see Widodo's move as eventually aimed at securing his legacy. Only two years are left before his tenure ends, but his big plans for Indonesia -- including moving the nation's capital from Jakarta to Nusantara on Borneo island and other infrastructure push -- have been disrupted by the pandemic and are facing further threats from inflation.
"He wants to leave behind a better legacy ahead of 2024, to make a soft landing" at the end of his presidency, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, executive director of pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia, told Nikkei Asia. "But he's worried that his agenda over the next two years will be disrupted by inflation."
Muhtadi added that Widodo could lose his credibility -- not just internationally but also in the country -- if Western leaders go ahead with their boycott threats and cause the G-20 Summit on the Indonesian island of Bali in November to fail. Hence the invitation to Zelenskky handed in person -- after an invitation by phone in April -- during the Kyiv visit.
Despite saying he might attend remotely, Zelenskyy seems unimpressed with Widodo's visit, at least judging by his tweets in the past week that made no mention of it. He has meanwhile tweeted his appreciation to a number of Western leaders who have pledged defense support for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy had asked for weapons from Indonesia, Widodo said after their phone call in April. But Widodo told him that Indonesia's constitution bars providing military aid to other countries. Instead, he announced last week medical aid and a commitment to helping Ukraine rebuild its hospitals damaged in Russian attacks.
Putin, on the other hand, was "satisfied" with his meeting with Widodo, according to Russian state news agency Tass. He called Indonesia one of the "friendly countries" that Russia will prioritize shipping its fertilizer to. Putin even offered Russian Railways investment in Nusantara.
Wasisto Jati, political communications expert at the National Research and Innovation Agency, noted that many Indonesians openly support Russia, which could be the reason Widodo also visited Moscow and not just Kyiv. They blame Zelenskyy for his pivot toward NATO, and compare Western leaders' staunch support for Ukraine with their inaction against the Israeli occupation of Palestine. Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, has long called for the Palestinian independence.
But Widodo is also likely hoping to balance that by visiting Kyiv first instead of Moscow and taking Iriana with him on the potentially dangerous trip. Iriana was the first foreign first lady to visit Ukraine during the war, appearing in most of the photos posted in the president's social media accounts of the trip -- and he posted many of them, including one showing Iriana hugging a Ukrainian war victim during a visit to a Kyiv hospital.
Jati said Widodo might be hoping to send "a strong humanitarian message" to the global public with Iriana accompanying him. "Iriana's gestures could break through diplomatic barriers" if the message is "amplified," he added.
Additional reporting by Ismi Damayanti in Jakarta.