IEA warns China will soon produce 95% of the solar supply chain
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Many in the West are fearful of losing a global technology race to Chinese dominance, especially with regards to the transition to cleaner energy. The International Energy Agency was the latest to warn about the consequences in a special report on the solar sector, a key element in plans for the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050. In fact, China's share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels currently exceeds 80%, and for key elements including polysilicon and wafers, it is set to rise to more than 95% in the coming years.
Quote: "The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025," the agency wrote in the report. "This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability." Biden to waive solar panel duties, eyes other tariff relief.
It's not the only area of concern. China's BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) just dethroned Tesla (TSLA) as the world's biggest electric vehicle maker and surpassed South Korea's LG as the planet's second-largest producer of EV batteries. The development comes as much of the West rolls out policies to convert their ICE fleets to EVs in the near future, but those initiatives will depend on raw materials processing that are highly concentrated in Asia. China's market share for battery components even climbed from 43% in 2014 to 60% in 2020 due to tight control of critical elements like lithium, nickel, cobalt and palladium.
Go deeper: The worries aren't limited to the energy landscape of the future. The war in Ukraine has seen power prices in Europe soar to record highs this week as the effects of Russia's gas supply cuts ripple through the continent. German power, the European benchmark, rose to a record of €337/MWh ($343.25), while French prices neared an all-time high of €398, triggering real fears for the manufacturing economy and heavy industry. The U.S. is also discussing price caps on Russian oil and gas with its allies, but the concept would need to garner widespread adoption to be effective, while Vladimir Putin could cut supplies even further if he felt that Moscow was being threatened. Winter is coming, and Europe may be out of gas when it arrives.