A Tough Agenda: Biden and AMLO to Talk Migration, Crime, the Economy"By Earl Anthony Wayne - July 11, 2022
When
Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced that he would
not attend the Summit of the Americas hosted by the U.S. in June because
Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua were not invited, AMLO (as he is known)
quickly added that he would soon visit President Biden in Washington —
and indeed, the two will meet on Tuesday.
Their meeting
underscores how vital good relations are for both countries, despite
sometimes significant policy differences. Too much is at stake to not
find ways to cooperate on key issues. The two leaders’ July 12
conversations will signal how well their administrations can manage a
challenging bilateral agenda.
Topping that agenda is managing
still-growing migration flows at the U.S.-Mexico border; tackling
cross-border smuggling of drugs, people and arms; facilitating trade of
$1 million a minute; and modernizing the border to enable commerce and
security. These tasks are complicated by lingering effects of the
pandemic, such as supply chain disruptions, and by high inflation and
rising energy and food prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns
are growing over the deterioration of democracy and human rights in
Mexico, fueled by AMLO’s condemnation of opponents and of Mexico’s
institutional checks and balances. His refusal to attend the summit in
Los Angeles without Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua sparked congressional
criticism. However, AMLO did send his foreign minister, Marcel Ebrard,
to participate in the summit. Ebrard joined Secretary of State Antony
Blinken and Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in issuing a joint
statement about cooperating on issues.
AMLO’s effort to blunt
criticism of his absence from the summit and Biden’s willingness to
rapidly arrange his visit to Washington underscore how vital bilateral
relations are, regardless of philosophical differences over how to treat
non-democracies in the Americas.
Almost 80 percent of Mexico’s
exports come to the U.S. Those exports accounted for most of Mexico’s
economic growth over the past year, pulling the country out of its
pandemic recession. That and the record remittances sent back home by
Mexicans in the U.S. highlight how fundamental the economic ties are.
Biden
knows the importance of Mexico from his work as vice president in the
Obama administration when he oversaw relations with Mexico and Central
America, which included trying to manage surging migration flows and
cross-border crime. Cooperation on these problems and border management
had deteriorated when Biden took office in 2021.
Illegal
smuggling of opioids from Mexico was the leading source of a record
106,000 U.S. drug overdose deaths. The persistent flows of illegal
migrants into the U.S. have been highlighted by the recent tragic deaths
in Texas from a smuggling operation gone bad. An increasing number of
Mexicans are crossing the border irregularly. Republicans are sharply
critical of the Biden administration’s border migration policies, so
Mexico must become a better partner if the Biden administration is to
improve migration management.
Biden and his team set out quickly
to mend relations with Mexico and reestablish mechanisms to promote
cooperation and problem solving. Simultaneously, trade ministers worked
to speed the implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA).
By the USMCA’s second anniversary, trade across North
America had surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Commerce with Mexico supports
some 5 million U.S. jobs. There is good cooperation in many areas but
still much work to do to achieve the agreement’s potential. Important
U.S.-Mexico trade problems need solutions, including concerns about
Mexican policies related to energy, biotech agriculture, and the
treatment of U.S. companies. The U.S. is encouraging solutions for
energy disputes and urging climate-friendly policies. More broadly, many
argue that Mexico is discouraging what could be a wave of “nearshoring”
investment.
Regarding crime, the U.S. and Mexico reached
agreement on objectives for cooperation, but there have not been clear
results, particularly in reducing deadly fentanyl flows from Mexico.
Organized criminal groups remain deeply ensconced. Analysts express
skepticism about the Mexican government’s security policies, and U.S.
travel advisories highlight insecure areas. Concerns about human rights
and democracy in Mexico are growing, but AMLO’s sharp rebukes of
criticisms make it tricky for Biden to raise those issues.
A good
outcome from their conversations would include clear signals of a
detailed plan to manage migrant flows. This would include effective
steps to adjust to the elimination of the “Remain in Mexico” program,
the expected end of expulsions justified by the pandemic, and cracking
down on migrant smuggling. It also would include serious commitment to
building regional cooperation, as agreed at the Summit of the Americas.
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On
crime, the two leaders must make clear that they want results that save
lives on both sides of the border and overcome mistrust that has
developed. Mexico needs to adjust its laws and practices that severely
limit cooperation on investigations. And a clear commitment to build a
21st century border with technology to reduce illicit trafficking would
be valuable.
On economic issues, we can hope for specific
commitments to try to manage inflation, resolve the tough USMCA
differences quickly, and demonstrate solid progress in cooperation
across North America.