The briefing that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett summoned political reporters to on Monday turned out to be a summation and farewell gathering. Next week Yair Lapid will hold the title of prime minister of the transition government, and Bennett will be the alternate premier and “Iran Portfolio Holder,” whatever that means. Bennett will complete a year and almost two weeks in office, more than the opposition projected, but of course much less than he hoped for.
The dispersal of the Knesset is bad news, for a long list of reasons. The most important is that a victory by Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to bring with it a renewal of his jihad against the justice system, and in fact against the state’s entire democratic system. Should there be a narrow right-wing government, with Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir as senior ministers, Israel may soon be dragged into strategic dangers, which will place it on a collision course with the Biden administration and possibly most of the international community.
Another round of elections, the fifth in two and a half years, will once again cause immense turmoil throughout Israel’s systems of governance. It is hard not to feel for the professional echelons at government ministries, who will once again have to maneuver in a world of short-term plans and budgets, with minimal attention from the political leadership.
Yet, another possibility must be taken into account, however slim its chances seem at the moment: Netanyahu can still seek a vote of no-confidence in the government, only after which the Knesset would disperse. If he manages to get the votes, it is Netanyahu who will head the transition government – and that’s a whole other opera.
There is one more bit of grim news: The outgoing government was established around a bold attempt to unite parties from the right, center and left in order to remove Netanyahu as prime minister, and stop the political paralysis that his legal predicament foisted on the entire system. But no less, it involved the important experiment of bringing an Arab party, the United Arab List, into the ruling coalition. If this experiment, too, is considered a failure, pessimism might set over future Jewish-Arab cooperation and the integration of Arabs in leadership. In the long run, this is dangerous for relations between the nations living within the Green Line as well.
Bennett himself concludes almost one quarter of a full term (less than half as long as planned) with a mixed diplomatic and security record. His greatest achievement is in the matter-of-fact steering of the ship of government, which, unlike the end of his predecessor’s reign, was hardly touched by extraneous concerns. This was evident in his impressive speech on Monday night in a joint statement with Lapid.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid hours before their joint statement on the dissolution of the Knesset, on Monday.Credit: Ohad Zwigenberg
As to this government’s regional strategy, it didn’t change radically compared to Netanyahu’s days. Netanyahu spoke of Iranian “footprints”? Bennett spoke of the “head of the octopus.” The attacks in Syria continued as well, perhaps with even greater intensity over the past few weeks. In the Palestinian arena, the current government chose, wisely, to tread carefully. The year following the last round of fighting in Gaza was relatively quiet. In the West Bank there has been a spate of terror, which has spilled over the Green Line, but it seems to have abated somewhat recently without Israel being dragged into a big military operation. The settlement enterprise has seen no significant change.
There is no guarantee that this relative stability will be maintained over the period between this government’s fall and the next one’s establishment, probably in four months or so. Lapid, like many of his predecessors, could find himself entangled in a security escalation he did not predict or prepare for. It is not out of the realm of possibility that someone will pick this precise time to test the resilience of a divided, contentious Israeli society. The security-maven circle surrounding Lapid is a bit poor on qualifications and experience. If he does indeed intend to bring in former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot ahead of the upcoming elections, it might be in his best interest to hurry it up.
And another thought: Half a year ago, when the coalition still seemed relatively stable, vigorous negotiations were going on with Netanyahu’s attorneys over signing a plea agreement. Former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit hesitated at the last moment, partly due to opposition from the prosecution brass, over the indecision on attaching moral turpitude to the sentence. This is hindsight, of course, but there was a missed chance here to stabilize the political system. There would have been an immense possible price – for failing to exhaust the judicial process and determine the truth – but it may have been the only way to untie the current knot for a few years, and stop Netanyahu’s moves to bring down the democratic system.