Realist Erdogan embraces Saudi prince with eye on new prizes
A beneficiary of Ukraine war, Mohammed bin Salman beams on comeback tour
CANAKKALE, Turkey -- "Hello, prince of youth / Oh, my good sir / Your ambition is for the clouds"
A band sang these words at a banquet in Ankara on Wednesday as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
At the head table sat just three people: Erdogan, the prince and an interpreter.
The message did not go unnoticed by the Saudi side. "A musical _expression_ in Saudi words," tweeted Bader al-Asaker, the head of the private office of the crown prince, along with a video.
It marks quite a diplomatic shift for the geopolitical navigator Erdogan. He previously saw the young prince as a rival for regional influence and in 2018 saw a golden opportunity to undercut him.
MBS, as the prince is known, was viewed as having ordered the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul. Turkey quickly shared audio footage with the global intelligence community, including the Central Intelligence Agency, and leaked the details to local and international media.
Erdogan wrote in The Washington Post on Nov. 2 that year that the world had learned that Khashoggi "was killed in cold blood by a death squad."
The Turkish president wrote that he knew the order to kill Khashoggi "came from the highest levels of the Saudi government" and added, "I do not believe for a second that King Salman, the custodian of the holy mosques, ordered the hit."
But now Erdogan sees other opportunities. Strengthening ties with cash-rich Saudi Arabia paves the way for much-needed investment ahead of the 2023 elections.
On Thursday, Erdogan personally accompanied his guest to the airport in the capital, Ankara, with a turquoise-colored carpet laid out for the occasion. The prince, who wore a big smile throughout the visit, hugged and patted Erdogan on the back before climbing up the stairs to his plane.
Such scenes were once considered unimaginable as relations soured.
Regional developments have made it easier for Erdogan to switch tack. Russia's war in Ukraine has isolated Moscow and subsequently elevated Saudi Arabia's importance as one of the handful of oil suppliers that can fill the Russian void.
That has accelerated the political rehabilitation of MBS. The prince this week embarked on a three-nation tour of Egypt, Jordan and Turkey -- his first visit out of Gulf Cooperation Council member states since 2018.
MBS is also preparing to host U.S. President Joe Biden next month. During his presidential campaign, Biden said he would make Saudi Arabia "pay the price, and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are" for the murder of Khashoggi. Realpolitik has washed away such ideals.
Yasar Yakis, a founding member of Erdogan's ruling party who also served as foreign minister and as ambassador to Riyadh, said both Turkey and the U.S. have turned the page on the Khashoggi incident. "Countries cannot be on bad terms forever. They have pressing national interests," he said.
For Saudi Arabia, Yakis said, Turkey is another major Sunni power it wants on its side against Shiite power Iran.
"Saudi Arabia and Turkey are super powers in the region competing for a religious leadership role in the Middle East," said Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher at SEPAD (the Sectarianism, Proxies and De-Sectarianization Project).
"MBS understands that regional stability is needed for his domestic prosperity. Saudi Arabia is still cognizant that Turkey could interfere in Arab affairs and that Erdogan's discourse could be inflammatory."
When Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia in April, there was high expectation among the Turkish business world that Riyadh would end its unofficial boycott of Turkish goods, which has halted imports from Turkey almost entirely and shut out Turkish contractors from the lucrative oil-rich market since 2018.
Not much happened after that April visit, but some Turkish businesspeople now believe the boycott is over.
"Saudi Arabia's Minister of Investment Khalid al-Falih and Minister of Commerce Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi told us they have been personally instructed by the crown prince to make economic relations with Turkey like before or even better," said Erdal Eren, the head of the Turkish Contractors Association. "We are told that as of Wednesday, all customs and visa issues of Turkish companies can be considered solved."
Eren said around 35 companies, ranging from defense to construction, raised issues and their expectations with ministers during a meeting. Eight to nine companies with complex problems met with the ministers one-on-one, Eren told Nikkei Asia.
Mithat Yenigun, chairman of Yenigun Construction, was one of the businessman who met al-Qasabi exclusively. Yenigun told Nikkei Asia that the commerce minister had given him his cellphone number and urged him to call anytime if his problems in Saudi Arabia are not solved.
Saudi Arabia is the sixth-largest foreign market for Turkish contractors. They have taken on 377 projects worth more than $24 billion to date, including petrochemical facilities, power plants, malls, houses, airports and railways.
Now Turkish companies want a share of the megaprojects that Saudi Arabia is planning, enabled by surging oil prices.
"It is also for the benefit of Saudi Arabia to work with Turkey. We are cheaper compared to Europeans or Americans. When they opt for Western options, the price increases. If they opt for Chinese options, the quality drops. So we need each other," Yenigun said.
Erdogan's rapprochement with Saudi Arabia is just the latest of his diplomatic attempts to mend fences with regional countries.
At the end of last year, he buried the hatchet with the United Arab Emirates, inviting then-Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, known as MBZ, to Turkey. Now the president, MBZ pledged to create a $10 billion fund to invest in Turkey.
After the Arab Spring of 2011, Erdogan backed Muslim Brotherhood-related Islamist movements in the wider region, believing Turkey offered a model for moderate political Islam. That had put Ankara at odds with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt under current President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi.
But recently, Turkey has stopped voicing open support for the Brotherhood and asked dissident Arab media, gathered in Turkey after the Arab Spring, to tone down their criticism against governments like Egypt.
Emre Peker, Europe director for the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said: "Erdogan realizes that Turkey's traditional foreign investors from the West will not show enough of an interest to plug widening financing needs before the elections next year. So he is normalizing relations across the region for alternative markets and investors."
Ali Bakir, an assistant professor at Qatar University's Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, said several motives stand behind the Saudi decision to reconcile with Turkey. "These include its quest to lessen its absolute dependence on the U.S., increase its international and regional reach-out to key players, its ambitions to create a strong local defense industry, as well as its desire to counter mounting security challenges posed by Iran," he said.
"The Saudis are very interested in Turkey-produced aerial and naval defense products," he added.
Additional reporting by Saber Rabie in Cairo and Nesreen Bakheit in Dubai.