Iran and Russia To Discuss Stalled Nuclear Deal
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is in Moscow today to meet his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov as Tehran seeks to remove a new roadblock in its quest to return to the 2015 nuclear deal and remove punishing sanctions.
Like the world’s energy markets, food markets, and traditional geopolitical alignments, Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a knock-on effect on the deal’s endgame. Moscow now demands its own sanctions carve-outs in return for any deal, a move that could blunt Western attempts to force Putin’s government to incur tangible costs for its invasion.
The United States is so far holding firm, with one Biden administration official saying there was no “scope for going beyond” what has already been agreed in Vienna. The official said that the administration “would know within a week whether or not Russia is prepared to back down,” in comments to the Wall Street Journal.
Is it dead (again)? With Russia pursuing an unpredictable course, officials in Vienna appear to be preparing an alternative deal without Moscow’s input. Such a deal would need to find replacements for Russia’s role in removing enriched uranium from Iran as well as its expertise in converting its Fordow nuclear facility to a research role. One former Iranian official, speaking to Middle East Eye, said the absence of Russia on those fronts was “no big deal” since “the U.S. and Europe can easily find another country to do that for Iran.”
Iran’s side. If Iran is purely motivated by reviving its economy, a deal that leaves out Russia would still be less destructive than the sanctions-riddled status quo. Although Iran’s exports to Russia doubled from $400 million to $800 million from 2019 to 2020, that still represents a small percentage of Iran’s overall exports. Far more valuable is its relationship with its Asian partners. China, India, Japan, and South Korea made up nearly 75 percent of Iran’s exports in 2019 (China was the destination for $12.1 billion of those exports, 48.3 percent of Iran’s total).
Iran’s longtime alliance with Russia, (underscored by its apparent support for Russia’s war), as well as budget-boosting oil prices, both serve to complicate the picture. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said that a deal without Russia wasn’t under consideration and laid the blame on the United States for delays.
“Downgrading what is happening in Vienna to one element—meaning Russia’s demand—is what the U.S. wants so everyone would forget its own responsibilities. No one must forget that the party responsible for the fact that we are still at the point of non-agreement is the U.S.,” he said.
Khatibzadeh said if Washington “adopts a suitable political decision today, delegations can return to Vienna tomorrow.”