China, US move further apart as Ukraine adds to tensions, observers say
- Leaders last spoke in November and they’re not expected to hold direct talks any time soon
- Putin’s war was the focus of Monday’s seven-hour meeting between senior officials in Rome
15 Mar, 2022
The Ukraine crisis is driving China and the United States further apart, and observers do not expect their leaders to meet or the relationship to improve any time soon.
The assessment follows Monday’s “intense” seven-hour meeting between China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Rome.
Readouts from both sides emphasised a commitment to keep communication open and avoid conflict, but that appears to be where the agreement ends.
Yang called on the US to “truly deliver” on President Joe Biden’s promises to Chinese leader Xi Jinping at their summit in November – particularly on Taiwan. He said Washington’s stand on the island was “obviously not consistent with its statements”. Sullivan raised concern over Beijing’s “provocative actions” in the Taiwan Strait, while Yang warned Washington against going further “down the road of great danger” on the issue.
The US does not have formal ties with Taipei but has been moving closer to the self-ruled island – angering Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own territory.
But Ukraine was the focus of Monday’s talks. Sullivan warned that China could face serious consequences if it backed Russia’s war; Yang said the US should not mischaracterise Beijing’s position on the conflict.
Beijing is facing growing pressure from the West to use its leverage with Moscow to defuse the situation. China has so far refused to condemn Russia’s aggression in Ukraine – or even call it an invasion – but has called for dialogue and de-escalation. Both Beijing and Moscow have denied reports that Russia asked China for military aid.
Zhu Feng, an international affairs expert at Nanjing University, said readouts from the two sides suggested there was not much common ground.
“This is to be expected since they are still divided on Ukraine,” Zhu said. “The Biden administration is trying to exploit the Ukraine crisis to push America’s strategic advance,” he said. “It will be increasingly difficult to achieve any substantial improvement in China-US relations now.”
Yang and Sullivan last met in October, in Zurich, and their talks paved the way for a virtual summit between Xi and Biden a month later. But Zhu did not expect more direct talks between the leaders in the near future – even as the Ukraine conflict created an urgent need for cooperation.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Xi has spoken with President Vladimir Putin, and last week with the French and German leaders. Biden has held talks on the crisis with more than a dozen world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky multiple times since the war broke out.
But as fighting intensifies, the death toll rises and millions flee Ukraine in what the UN has called Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II, the leaders of the world’s two largest economies have yet to speak directly with each other.
Even if they did, it would be unlikely to bring “major or lasting results”, according to Shi Yinhong, an international affairs specialist at Renmin University of China.
“Given the broader confrontation between the US and China … including the conflict over Ukraine, it is unlikely there will be talks between the Chinese and US presidents soon,” he said. “After the [Rome] meeting, the two sides presumably now have little doubt about how firm and determined they are to stick to their positions.”
Shi also noted that there had not been any improvement in relations between the two powers since Xi and Biden spoke in November.
Beijing and Washington are at a stage where they are re-evaluating the relationship, according to a US affairs specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
It was unlikely that Xi and Biden would hold talks until the situation in Ukraine “became clearer”, said the academic, who did not wish to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.
They said Beijing’s relationship with close ally Moscow was also a factor. Just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi and Putin declared their two nations’ partnership had “no limits”. “If [Xi] has a phone call with Biden at this moment, how will Putin react?” the academic said.
Monday’s meeting had been planned for weeks and came as the Ukraine crisis has added to tensions between the two nations. The US and China have been at loggerheads over issues ranging from Washington’s diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Games to the coronavirus pandemic, human rights, trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The
sensitive issues of Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong were also raised in
the meeting, with Yang reiterating Beijing’s position that they were
domestic matters for China and there should be no foreign interference,
according to the Chinese readout.