Beijing's tacit support for Putin during
Russia's invasion of Ukraine hasn't been lost on Europeans, who are
viewing the Chinese government with growing skepticism.
Why it matters:
"What we are witnessing now is a major shift when it comes to China’s
relations with central Europe, and with the EU in general," said Jakub
Jakóbowski, senior fellow at the China program at the Center for Eastern
Studies in Warsaw.
State of play: The Chinese government has presented itself as neutral in the conflict, but Chinese officials and state media have widely disseminated pro-Russia disinformation and government censors have scrubbed the Chinese internet of pro-Ukraine views.
- Russian banks and companies are turning to China for an economic lifeline amid tough Western sanctions.
- China's abstention from the UN Security Council resolution denouncing Russia's invasion also irked Europeans, who have rallied around Ukraine.
This pro-Russia stance has accelerated a shift in Europe toward viewing Beijing not just as a trade partner but also a security concern.
- The European Commission labeled China a "systemic rival" in 2019, but the bloc has also emphasized its own strategic autonomy to distance itself from tougher U.S. policies on China.
- "For
years, China was trying to present itself as a geopolitically
transparent actor that has nothing to do with regional security in
Europe and is only aiming at cooperation," Jakóbowski said. Now "China
is certainly becoming a part of the European security landscape, though
not directly, but as a Russian enabler."
- European officials and
the European public now "see quite clearly that there are similarities
between Russia and China," Didi Tatlow, senior fellow at the German
Council on Foreign Relations, told Axios.
Yes, but: Some top European officials still believe China can play a constructive role in the conflict.
- Josep Borrell, the EU's top foreign policy official, said
last week that Beijing should be the one to mediate between Russia and
Ukraine, a role the Chinese government has also proposed.
Between the lines: China
must balance opposing risks in its dealings with Europe and Russia,
Patrik Oksanen, senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum, told
Axios.
- "If they support Russia too much, they will risk having a united West against them," Oksanen said."
- But
"if they don’t support Russia, and Russia collapses and leaves the
international arena, then the U.S. could focus its attention on China
instead."