Peace Talks Proceed Amid Ukraine War
As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, the contours of a peace deal are beginning to come into focus. As the Financial Times reports, topics currently under discussion include Ukrainian neutrality, a promise never to join NATO, and a pledge not to host any foreign military bases.
Some of those measures are similar to Russian demands made in discussions with the United States in December.
Ukraine’s lead negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak has rejected a Russian suggestion of neutrality based on Sweden or Austria’s models, saying the model could only be “Ukrainian and only on legally verified security guarantees.” The fact that the idea was not simply dismissed shows how seriously Ukraine’s government is considering the option. (Adopting Finland’s model, an option recommended by Henry Kissinger and others, seems to have been left unsaid).
Still, the possibility that Ukraine could shift its stance has been signaled by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who suggested on Tuesday that he would consider abandoning the country’s quest to join NATO, a process that would involve amending the country’s constitution.
Zelensky also said the talks, which could follow into a fourth consecutive day today were becoming “more realistic” while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said there is now “some hope for compromise.”
The United States is less optimistic about peace, with State Department spokesman Ned Price saying on Tuesday that the Biden administration had “yet to find a Russian interlocutor that is either able or willing to negotiate in good faith, and certainly not in the context of de-escalation.” (That U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke the very next day with his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev suggests that ground could be shifting).
Despite Russia’s insistence that it will prosecute the war until its “goals” are met, seeking a deal sooner rather than later makes sense. Sanctions will take time to fully hit, but when they do, the Kremlin will have to deal with an even more unsettled populace. The seeds of unrest—exemplified by forced factory closures as well as a declining ruble—are already taking root.
It also makes sense in that Ukraine’s ability to wage war is strengthening, with an additional $800 million in U.S. military aid announced on Wednesday—part of a broader $14 billion aid package. The military component includes 100 miniature Switchblade drones, designed to fly kamikaze style to penetrate armored vehicles.
Ultimately, the decision to pursue further negotiations—and whether to compromise—ultimately rests with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the anti-Western rhetoric emanating from the Kremlin in recent days has not changed much.