In snub to Washington, UAE reaches out to Russia
Washington's
geopolitical cards are dwindling rapidly. The high-level UAE visit to
Moscow this week has consolidated OPEC+ support for Russia in the energy
war now raging between east and west.
March 18 2022
The
UAE is the fourth West Asian state to have travelled to Moscow in the
past week to strike agreements unfavorable to Washington.
Photo Credit: The Cradle
Four top foreign
minster level diplomats from Qatar, Iran, Turkey and the UAE travelled
to Moscow this week, in as many days, in an impressive display of
strategic realignment by regional states against the backdrop of the
US-Russia conflict unfolding over Ukraine.
The arrival in
Moscow of the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah bin Zayed bin
Sultan Al-Nahyan on Thursday is the most striking. This is happening
within a fortnight of the country’s inclusion on 4 March in the Grey
List of the global financial crime watchdog, the Financial Action Task
Force (FATF), due to alleged financial crimes. The FATF recommendations
for the UAE include:
- Implementing a more robust system to collect case studies and statistics used in money laundering (ML) investigations;
- Demonstrating a sustained increase in effective investigations and prosecutions of different types of ML cases;
- Probing increase in the number and quality of suspicious transaction reports filed by financial institutions and other entities; and,
- Monitoring high-risk ML threats, such as proceeds of foreign predicate offences, trade-based ML, and third-party laundering.
The FATF is one of
those tools of torture that the west has finessed in the international
system to humiliate and punish developing countries whom it wants to
teach a lesson or two. A cursory look at the countries figuring in the 22-member Grey List would reveal that the UAE shouldn’t really belong there — Albania, Burkina Faso, Haiti, South Sudan, Uganda, Yemen and so on.
But the west’s
calculation is that the economy of a country gets affected in a negative
manner when it figures on the Grey List — with international financial
institutions starting to look at it as a risky nation for investment,
which in UAE’s case also renders a lethal blow to its flourishing
tourism industry.
Indeed, this
happened under the watch of an American, Vincent Schmoll, who is holding
interim charge as the acting FATF executive secretary since January.
Schmoll used to be a functionary at the US Treasury. Conceivably,
Washington’s writ runs large in this episode.
US-UAE relations
have been experiencing some tumult during the past year. The trouble
began soon after President Donald Trump’s departure from the White
House. In January 2021, on Trump’s last full day in office, Abu Dhabi
had signed a $23 billion agreement to buy 50 F-35 fighter jets, 18
Reaper drones, and other advanced munitions, but incoming President Joe
Biden froze the deal as soon as he entered the Oval Office.
A number of
factors might have influenced the Biden administration’s calculations,
apart from the fact that the lucrative F-35 deal was a Trump legacy. As
it transpired, in a delaying tactic, Washington began voicing serious
concerns about the UAE-China relationship and the particularly strong
economic ties developing between Abu Dhabi and Beijing. Notably,
Washington wanted the UAE to put an end to a 5G contract with Chinese
tech giant Huawei, which is the undisputed global leader in
next-generation 5G technology.
Meanwhile, in
addition to the Huawei issue, US intelligence agencies claimed to have
discovered that Beijing was building what they thought to be a secret
military facility at the Khalifa port in the UAE.
Emirati officials
denied the allegation, but under pressure from Washington, were forced
to halt the project, although the Persian Gulf states in general, and
the UAE in particular, do not like being pushed to take sides between
Washington and Beijing. They consider that their best interest lies in
maintaining neutrality and balancing relations.
The end result, as
everyone knows, was that much to the annoyance of Washington, Abu Dhabi
finally hit back by opting for 80 Rafale combat aircraft from France in
a deal worth over $20 billion last December.
Then came the bombshell in February with the sensational disclosure that
the UAE has plans to order 12 L-15 light attack planes from China, with
the option of purchasing 36 more. A UAE defence ministry statement said
the purchase is part of the country’s efforts to diversify weapon
suppliers. As an aside, the UAE air force operates mainly American-made
F-16 and French-made Mirage fighters.
Only a week later,
all hell broke loose when the UAE resisted American pressure and
abstained (twice) on US-led Ukraine-related UN Security Council
resolutions condemning Russia. Subsequent reports said that the Biden
administration conveyed its displeasure to Abu Dhabi.
Soon after that, according to a Wall Street Journal report last week, Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan failed to take a call from Bidenwho
apparently wanted to discuss the US expectation that the UAE would pump
more oil into the market to bring down skyrocketing prices.
Yet another
complicating factor is that the Biden administration blundered into the
intra-Gulf rivalries by designating Qatar as a ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’
(MNNA). On 31 January, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani became the
first Persian Gulf leader to meet with Biden in the White House and
media accounts of the visit highlighted a $20 billion deal for Boeing
777X freighter aircraft. Additionally, the emir met with Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin and discussed weapons sales.
Given this
backdrop, Foreign Minister Abdullah Al-Nahyan’s arrival in Moscow
couldn’t have been any less dramatic. The Russian side has divulged few
details about the visit. The big question is whether any arms deal was
been discussed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a statement that
the talks covered “a wide range of issues related to our bilateral
relations and international agenda. For obvious reasons, we paid a great
deal of attention to the Ukrainian developments. We spoke in detail
about the goals and objectives of Russia’s special military operation in
Ukraine to protect people from the Kiev regime, and to demilitarize and
de-Nazify this country.”
The UAE foreign minister reportedly told Lavrov
that his country aimed at further systematic development of relations
with Russia and diversification of the areas of bilateral cooperation.
In what was possibly an indirect swipe at the US sanctions aimed at
isolating Russia from the world economy, Al-Nahyan said:
“It is always important for us to keep our finger on the pulse and make sure that relations between Russia and the UAE move forward. There is no doubt that we are aimed at the systematic development of these relations and the diversification of the areas of bilateral cooperation so that it meets the interests of both our citizens and state institutions and other structures.”
He stressed that
the parties should strengthen cooperation on energy and food
security. Clearly, the US cannot count on the support of the Persian
Gulf region in its campaign to isolate Russia or to dismantle OPEC+ – an
increasingly influential body consisting of the 13 OPEC members plus
ten non-OPEC oil exporters, which is chaired by the largest producers
Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf countries are, one by one, seeking out
Russia to signal their solidarity and register their own desire to
shake off US hegemony.
Interestingly, last Tuesday, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa had called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss “topical
issues of Russia‒Bahrain cooperation in politics, trade
and the economy… (and) expressed the shared intention to further develop
the friendly ties between Russia and Bahrain.” This, despite the fact
that the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and the US Naval Forces Central Command
are based in Bahrain.
Such display of
solidarity by the ‘non-western international community’ brings some
vital nuance to the global geopolitical chessboard: for one, it makes a
mockery of the western sanctions against Russia. The Gulf countries are
avid ‘globalizers’ and trading nations — Dubai, in particular. As time
passes, western companies are sure to find ingenious ways to trade with
Russia via resourceful intermediaries in the Gulf region.
Abdullah
Al-Nahyan’s trip to Moscow is a demonstrative act of defiance, both
symbolically and strategically. It is a mark of the Persian Gulf
region’s growing alienation from Washington. Reports suggest that UK
Prime Minister Boris Johnson,
who travelled to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia this week to press for
increased oil production to lower oil prices, also came back
empty-handed.
Contrary to
Washington’s hopes, there is every likelihood that the OPEC+ will
continue to strengthen its strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the US.
Previously, Russia used to be a voice of moderation within the
group. This will have profound implications for the world oil market.
The high attention
Russian diplomacy paid to the West Asian region in the recent decade is
returning dividends, for sure. Russia offered its Persian Gulf
interlocutors something they never experienced before with a great power
– an equal partnership based on mutual respect.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.