The
U.S. spent years helping to broker new alliances between Israel and
Arab states. Washington is now witnessing deep shifts in the Middle East
and the ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and counterparts from three
Muslim-majority nations are taking part in a landmark meeting in Israel,
underscoring its increasing diplomatic clout amid intense regional
concern over talks to restore the nuclear deal with Iran. Ahead
of the trip, the U.S. said Blinken would address worries over the
Islamic Republic, as well as the diplomatic and economic fallout of the
Ukraine war. North African countries have
been hit by soaring global wheat prices driven by the conflict while U.S
allies in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, have
maintained ties with Russia. Like other regional crude exporters, the
UAE is in an oil alliance with Russia known as OPEC+ and has said it
remains committed to this. The two days of
discussions, which started yesterday and are hosted by Israeli Foreign
Minister Yair Lapid, include the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, all of which
concluded peace deals with Israel in 2020. Normalization
deals with Arab states and the prospect of a stronger Tehran returning
to global oil markets have thrust Israel to the fore of Mideast
diplomacy. A revived nuclear deal envisages sanctions waivers, allowing
Iran to sell its crude abroad. Reviving the
nuclear accord after a year of negotiations is thought to hang on a very
sensitive sticking point: whether to remove Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of terrorist organizations.
The Iranian demand has united regional powers in an unprecedented bid
to nix a pact they fear will hand Iran an oil windfall. In a sign of how deep the concerns go, the U.S. said yesterday the revival of the deal may well not happen soon. — Sylvia Westall
|