[Salon] Abu Dhabi: staking a bold claim



Abu Dhabi: staking a bold claim

Summary: the UAE is brusque with Washington, strategic with Moscow and keenly reinforcing relations with China and the wider East as America’s erstwhile ally seeks to play the advantage while the war in Ukraine rages.

Suhail al-Mazrouei has been the UAE’s minister of energy since 2013  and previously served as CEO of  state-owned ADNOC. He knows the  pricing peaks and valleys and the political terrain both rough and smooth of the hydrocarbons sector. And he also knows how to handle himself with Western media. So when CNBC’s Hadley Gamble asked him in her 28 March interview  about the call from America and Europe to replace Russian oil and gas he was succinct in his reply:

Who can replace Russia today? I can’t think of a country that can in a year, two, three, four, even ten years replace 10 million barrels (per day). It’s not realistic.  This talk is only going to push the prices higher.

 Though he expressed sympathy for those suffering in the war in Ukraine he was careful to stress that Russia’s role in OPEC+ remains a central and valuable one: “Russia will always be part of the group.  We will respect them.”

None of this is welcome news in Washington as it attempts to pressure the Saudis and the Emiratis to release more oil into the market and bring prices down.  Indeed the war has put further strains on relations between the US and the UAE. As David Gardner writing in the FT noted, in addition to the Gulf oil producers refusal to meet President Biden’s request to open the taps, there is deep annoyance that neither Saudi Arabia or the UAE are paying attention to the sanctions:

Washington and European capitals are also irritated at their Gulf allies’ non-committal reaction to Putin’s vicious attack on Ukraine. The Saudis and Emiratis are ignoring the wall of sanctions the US and its partners are building around Russia.

Gardner also drew attention to how swiftly al-Mazrouei swatted down the claim by the UAE’s Washington ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba on 9 March that Abu Dhabi favoured production increases and would encourage OPEC+ to consider them. “Within hours,” Gardner writes “the Emirati energy minister announced they were sticking with the Opec+ deal agreed with Moscow. Otaiba’s remarks brought benchmark crude prices sharply down and Abu Dhabi’s rebuttal sent them rocketing north again.”


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met UAE de facto leader Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan yesterday on a visit to Morocco [photo credit: @humeyra_pamuk]

Al-Mazrouei insists that the UAE’s concern is for all sides and in the best interests of the consuming nations and consumers. The UAE wants “to incentivize talks to end the war.” However his suggestion that sending weapons to Ukraine should be halted rather tips the scale on behalf of the Russians. And though he said he was giving his personal view it is surely one that reflects government thinking. He told Gamble:

(Talking) is better as an action than pouring weapons to the Ukrainians and they are going to die. If we want them to die we should encourage them to go and kill each other…. Giving more weapons is pouring fuel on the fire…. I think we need to end this.  As a father I care about the families who are displaced. The war is ugly. We have seen it in Iraq, in Syria. We have seen it in Afghanistan. War is ugly.

One war the minister did not mention has just passed its seven year mark: Yemen, where the UAE remains deeply engaged despite its claim to have withdrawn forces in 2019. The Emiratis remain in control of the strategic island of Socotra and just recently their proxy force, the Giants Brigade, engaged with the Houthis in the battle for the key governorate of Marib.

Yemen like many other MENA countries is facing further food insecurity as a result of the war in Ukraine with grains and other commodities prices soaring. Al-Mazrouei used food insecurity as another reason for seeking an end to the fighting. And he spoke about the threat of a worldwide recession driven by rampantly high energy prices. “We don’t want prices to go higher,” he told Gamble.

He revealed that the US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm had not reached out to him but he would always be there to listen: “there are things we can agree and things that we could disagree and we are not going to be told what to do. We know what is sensible for us.” And though he insists the US remains a good friend and partner, China is a valued partner with whom the UAE has a flourishing relationship. And he made it clear that in the energy field Abu Dhabi’s ambitions include the wider East with Indonesia being singled out.

Staking out the territory while delivering a backhanded slap to Washington the energy minister insisted “we have a right to be friends with everyone, we are not going to follow what one country wants.”

There is, of course, the old cliché about wanting to be friends with all and winding up friends with none. Like the Saudis and the Egyptians, the Emiratis are taking a calculated gamble that their tacit – and not so tacit – support for Russia will not come back to bite.


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