Is a peace
treaty to end the Russia-Ukraine war in sight?
Yesterday,
after the Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended their several hours of
negotiations in Istanbul under the watchful eye of Turkish president Erdogan,
the parties released information on the proposals that Kiev made and which
Moscow acknowledged were a possible working document for their eventual peace
treaty. Meanwhile, the Russians announced that as a token of good faith to
encourage the further rounds of negotiations, they would “drastically cut back”
their attack on Kiev.
Immediately,
global financial markets took heart and marked gains. In Russia, the currency market strengthened
significantly, reaching exchange rates against the dollar and euro that are
within 10-15% of where they were before Russia’s “special military operation”
got underway on 24 February.
What do we
know about the points on the negotiating table and can they serve as the basis
for a definitive peace?
The most
important concession which Kiev is offering is to declare “neutral” status, to
give up any plans to join military alliances or to allow foreign military to
establish bases on its territory. The latest proposal fleshes out the list of
guarantors of Ukraine’s security. These could include the UK, China, the USA,
Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel. In return, Russia will not object
to Ukraine joining the European Union.
The talking
points remain wide open as regards territory.
The future status of Crimea would be decided by 15 years of
consultations. The two presidents would
discuss the future of the Donbas republics.
One thing
that Western media have not noticed is the reaction of Russia’s leading talk
show panelists and hosts to these draft points for a treaty. As usual, I take for my point of reference
Vyacheslav Nikonov’s Great Game and
Vladimir Solovyov’s Evening show. I
think the message was clear yesterday: patriotic panelists were disheartened by
what they construed to be the too soft line being taken by the Kremlin’s
negotiators. A peace treaty is being drafted when none of Russia’s war
objectives has been met. No de-Nazification.
No regime change: the same Russophobe government would remain in power.
No significant territorial gains consolidated in the terms of the proposed
settlement. However, the hosts were
careful to remind the panelists that this was not end game, just a stopping
place on the way.
What do I
foresee?
I believe
that the Russians will continue to negotiate while using all available
firepower to change the situation on the ground in Ukraine dramatically in
their favor. The Kremlin remarked
several days ago, before the last round of negotiations, that it was about to
concentrate its forces in the Donbas to liberate still occupied territories of
the two republics and restore their boundaries from before 2014.
As regards,
Lugansk, there is not much to do. Latest information suggests that 93% of the
former Lugansk oblast is now in separatist hands. However, in the Donetsk People’s Republic
there is still a great deal to do. The separatists are holding only 50% of what
had been the territory of their oblast in 2014. There are reasons for
this. First, the main concentration of
the Ukrainian army, perhaps as many as 100,000 troops are still dug into hardened
positions directly opposite Donetsk that they created over the last eight years. They
have been firing artillery shells and rockets into Donetsk city and its suburbs
on a daily basis, causing multiple deaths and wanton destruction of residential
buildings and civil infrastructure. The
Donetsk forces alone are no match for this concentration; moreover, some of the
Donetsk troops have been diverted from attacking across the line of demarcation
by the assignment given to them by Moscow from the start of the operations: to
assist with the taking of Mariupol. Donetsk units moved south to Mariupol to meet
up with Russian troops moving north from Crimea. But the operation has been
very difficult and time consuming. Still
now there are a couple of thousand die-hard Azov battalion soldiers holed up in
the steel mill and in the port area. Their numbers are falling either to
Russian assault teams or by melting into the civilian population and heading
out via humanitarian corridors. As soon
as this operation is completed, the Donetsk forces and Russians can head north
to attack the main mass of Ukrainians to the west of the Dniepr.
The
Russians are running out of time and out of resources to smash the Ukrainian
troops west of the Dniepr. It may be that to get the job done, they will
finally resort to the “American way of war” and carpet bomb the Ukrainian positions.
We will see shortly.
If the
Russians succeed in liberating the 50% of Donetsk oblast still held by Kiev,
then they will be ready for a cease fire and for definitive peace talks. By smashing the greatest concentration of
Ukrainian forces they will achieve two of their original objectives with one
stroke: de-Nazification and
demilitarization. The question will
remain whether Zelenski can sign a peace based on the new realities. It may be
in his interest to go to Istanbul for talks with Putin and then to keep on
flying to freedom. His associates in
Kiev will surely be ready to lynch him for a bad peace.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 202