1. Gasoline Tightness Becomes Main US Concern
- With the EIA reporting an almost 5-million-barrel stock draw in gasoline over the week ending May 13, with inventories dropping to levels last seen in December and completely ignoring the seasonal build-up trend, gasoline has become the talk of the US market.
- This week brought a long-anticipated breakthrough as even the last states to see gasoline prices below $4 per gallon (Georgia, Kansas, and Oklahoma) have surpassed that threshold and every single US state now sees gasoline prices above the WTI contract.
- At the same time, the backwardation in the gasoline futures remains steep, hindering potential arbitrage inflows from Europe, with the six-month calendar spread around trading $1 per barrel.
- Buoyed by gasoline panic and the Biden Administration’s possible delay of US drilling lease sales, the NYMEX WTI has overtaken ICE Brent for the first time in months.
2. Russian Oil Revenues Are Soaring, Despite Sanctions
- The International Energy Agency reported that the Kremlin has netted approximately $20 billion every single month of 2022 so far, from combined sales of about 8 million b/d of crude and products.
- This implies that despite US/EU sanctions and frequent self-sanctioning amongst Western oil companies dealing with Russia, the primary lifeline of the Putin regime remains firmly in place.