"President Joe Biden has said that the United States is committed to a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine," Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe write at Foreign Affairs. "But his administration has taken few, if any, steps to create a diplomatic process that could produce such an outcome."
And an open letter from progressive Democrats in Congress last week—which urged Biden "to seriously explore all possible avenues, including direct [diplomatic] engagement with Russia, to reduce harm and support Ukraine in achieving a peaceful settlement"—was met with vehement critique.
Here's an examination of how a diplomatic resolution could become viable.
Roadblocks to diplomacy
- The U.S. "and its G-7 partners have already proposed a peace deal," Charap and Priebe note. "But the terms read like conditions for Russia's surrender," which would be "ideal" but is "improbable." The U.S. should:
- Stop assuming "Moscow will accept complete territorial loss without provoking a wider war or using weapons of mass destruction," especially tactical nukes.
- Recognize "it is far from certain that Ukraine will be able to retake all of its internationally recognized territory." A protracted cycle of advance and retreat is highly possible.
- Accept that "Russia may not give up even if it is forced to withdraw from Ukrainian territory." A sustained Russian air war or even a second invasion is possible, too. [Foreign Affairs]
- Those realities are why DEFP fellows Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris argued in Politico in August that a diplomatic resolution is not currently in view in either Moscow or Kyiv. Other problems include:
- Moscow still holds a large swathe of Ukrainian land, and Russian President Vladimir Putin "believes Western support for Ukraine will eventually weaken as the economic blowback" increases.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr "Zelensky believes time is on Ukraine's side," and faces no "public pressure to cut a deal."
- "There's no sign the spigot of U.S. military aid ... will stop anytime soon either. [Politico]
- Winter is arriving, and its effects could favor the Russian invaders by making their supply lines more difficult to disrupt while Ukrainian civilians struggle to cope with damaged infrastructure. (FT)
How to move toward talks
- Maximally pro-Ukraine diplomatic demands are "morally and legally justified," Charap and Priebe acknowledge, but that doesn't mean they can succeed. Instead, the U.S. should:
- Encourage both sides to "demonstrate openness to the prospect of eventual talks, and to moderate public expectations of a decisive victory."
- Emphasize "that a negotiated settlement would not be an act of capitulation" and that it will "entail some give-and-take."
- "Finally, the Biden administration should consider keeping all lines of communication with Moscow open, from the president on down." [Foreign Affairs]
- As former President Barack Obama recently observed, communication lines between the White House and the Kremlin are "as weak as they have been" for years, and that is dangerous and counterproductive in a time of crisis. [Pod Save America]
- The meeting late last month between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was a good start. [The Spectator World / Daniel DePetris]
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SURVEY SAYS
Poll: Americans think avoiding U.S.-Russia war should be Washington's top goal in Ukraine
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See the full poll results from Eurasia Group Foundation here.
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While it doesn’t hurt to be ambitious, it also doesn’t hurt to understand the limits of your power. The U.S. remains the most powerful nation in the world, with boundless economic potential and a military second to none, but other countries have independent agency, their own core interests and the resiliency to ensure that those interests are protected.
The result is a wide divergence between the grand objectives the U.S. hopes to accomplish and the reality the U.S. operates in.
Read the full letter here.
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"This essay seeks to explore how a nuclear war begun in Ukraine could proceed," examining "six specific questions related to Russian nuclear use":
- Would Russia really use nuclear weapons?
- What is the reaction to the initial nuclear detonation?
- What is NATO's response?
- What is the Russian counter-response?
- How would NATO fight a nuclear war?
- What is the endgame?
Read the full analysis here.
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