Ethiopia’s Fragile Peace Deal
Ethiopia’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front have agreed to grant unfettered humanitarian access to Tigray, potentially bringing relief to millions of people who have been on the verge of famine due to a grinding blockade that has prevented the entry of aid.
The Ethiopian government and the TPLF’s latest commitment builds on a truce that both parties signed on Nov. 2, nearly two years into a disastrous war that killed as many as half a million people and displaced millions more. The agreement was widely seen as a breakthrough and potential glimmer of hope in the conflict—although many political hurdles could threaten its success.
The durability of the deal will be especially consequential for Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where the effects of the war and an unrelenting government blockade have pushed millions to the brink of starvation. Alongside fuel shortages and severed water supplies, the region has also been largely disconnected from electricity, internet, and banking networks.
Under the agreement, Tigrayan forces have 30 days to completely disarm, a process which is set to begin on Nov. 15, Reuters reported. The Ethiopian government will assume control of highways and airports and preside over the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle.
Given these conditions, the deal was seen as a triumph for Ethiopian authorities, the New York Times reported, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that “Ethiopia’s peace proposal has been accepted 100 percent.”
But after roughly two years of brutal fighting and reports of sexual violence and ethnic cleansing, experts said it might be challenging for Tigrayan fighters to accept such conditions.
“These will be difficult terms for Tigrayans to swallow,” tweeted Alan Boswell, the director of the Horn of Africa Project at the International Crisis Group. “Due in part to anger at this TPLF deal, the risk of intra-Tigray feuding is high and needs to be closely watched.”
Another issue is how the Eritrean government will respond. Despite playing a dominant military role in the war and supplying countless troops to fight alongside Ethiopian forces, Eritrea was not explicitly mentioned in the agreement, raising questions about whether it might seek to disrupt the already-tenuous peace process.
In Foreign Policy, Mohamed Kheir Omer, a former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front, argues that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki—a longstanding foe of the TPLF who “views this conflict as a zero-sum game”—could undermine the agreement.
“All parties interested in seeing this peace agreement succeed must be cognizant of the spoiler role Isaias has played in the past in the Horn of Africa—and the risk that he could do it again,” he writes.