President Putin gave Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed his coat to protect
him from the cold St. Petersburg weather after the two men met at the
Konstantinovsky Palace on 12 October [photo credit: Russia TV]
Divergent Point
Through the lens of energy politics, the West has sought to engage
its partners to support efforts to isolate Putin. But during the recent OPEC+ meeting
in Vienna, a Saudi-led decision was taken to cut production with the
clear intent to push prices upward. The White House was enraged by the
decision as President Biden is striving to rein in what Americans are
paying at the pumps ahead of the November mid-terms. American anger
aside, the production cut and concomitant price rise not only directly
assists President Putin to maintain his war on Russia through increased
revenue, globally it hurts a wide array of states struggling with high
inflation and the looming threat of recession. After the previous failed
approaches by Biden and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson
to encourage the GCC states to increase oil production, the fault line
is now clear to all. As a result, the White House announced it is re-evaluating its relationship with Saudi Arabia
and many high level political figures have been blunt in their
criticism, calling for a freeze on future cooperation including arms
sales. Of note: while the Saudis led the OPEC production cut initiative,
there was no significant opposition from its regional allies,
suggesting a collective political intent.
The political significance of their collective action must be
understood within the context of Putin’s war. By embarking on this
strategy, the GCC has aligned with Russia and is actively opposing
Western efforts to back Ukraine. The war in Ukraine, as the GCC sees it,
is not within their direct geographic sphere and therefore not a
security concern. The GCC is also reflecting that when concerns over its
own security from Iran and the Houthis were raised, these were
rubbished by the White House, to the point where US support for the war in Yemen was halted. Curtailing oil production could be seen as petulance but is also the culmination of a decade of mistrust.
North-South Corridor
The UAE’s rapid growth in international standing has won many
plaudits. It has been able to expertly manage strategic narratives to
align with foreign partners on issues such as countering violent extremism.
Under the leadership of Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) the UAE has grown
assertive in its foreign policy, engaging in conflicts in Mali, Libya,
Sudan, and Yemen. His diplomatic initiatives include building a strong
relationship with Putin’s Russia. Putin, for his part, sees the UAE as
an extremely useful partner in his longstanding goal to build an economic and transportation corridor to markets in Asia.
After OPEC’s decision to cut production, MbZ travelled to Moscow
for a state visit. The UAE has tried to claim the visit was intended to
help support peace talks. But the timing and intention are clear. If
Abu Dhabi had wanted to signal a cautious approach and claim neutrality,
UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed would have made the trip, or a
phone call would have taken place. Instead, an in-person meeting
illustrated the strength of Emirati-Russian ties.
Military support and cooperation between the UAE and Russia is active across Africa, defence platforms manufactured in the UAE have been seen in the hands of Russian and Chechyen troops in Ukraine and the UAE has become a key outlet
for Russia to continue its trade in oil and chemicals to Asia. Even
so, it is the Saudis who have drawn the ire of Washington while the
UAE’s close engagements with Moscow have either been ignored or are
simply not known about.
Kyiv is more than aware of the strong relationship between the UAE
and Russia and does not see MbZ as a neutral actor. President Zelensky
can point to the UAE initially refraining from condemning Russia’s
invasion and throughout the war to the visits senior Emirati officials have routinely made to Moscow. Dialogue with Kyiv, on the other hand, is sparse.
While attempts will be made to reshape the narrative
of recent events within the GCC, for the West the deterioration of
trust and confidence cannot simply be ignored. It will lead to further
strains. Neither MbS nor MbZ have travelled to the US in recent years
due to the former’s involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and the latter’s in Russian interference in
the election that brought Trump to power. As things stand, it does not
look like either will return to Washington in the foreseeable future.
The decisions to align so closely with Russia indicates a sea change
within GCC policy that could have seismic implications for the
long-term.