One of the main lessons of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis was to keep open the channels of communication between nuclear-armed powers; but the frequent use of the Cuban analogy to call for a face-saving ‘off-ramp’ for Vladimir Putin to end today’s Ukraine crisis reverses the roles of the United States and its main adversary in the earlier conflict, which saw a secret agreement to withdraw missiles from Turkey in exchange for doing the same in Cuba. Back then it was the United States that had sponsored an invasion of Cuba, subverted its government, and threatened to use nuclear weapons against a distant superpower for arming a client state next to the US border. So, Joe Biden is not the leader who ought to be contemplating an ‘off-ramp’ for his Russian adversary; the empathy John F Kennedy and his advisers summoned in 1962 to understand the crisis through Soviet eyes should now apply the other way round. Leaving aside for the moment the complex territorial and other disputes between Russia and Ukraine, what sort of ‘off-ramp’ might work for the USA and NATO? Some possibilities: Russia offers to rejoin and implement the Open Skies and CFE Treaties. Russia proposes a new round of START negotiations. Russia promises to deliver Iranian agreement on the JCPOA. Russia promises to stay neutral in the American rivalry with China. Russia promises to terminate any Middle Eastern interventions to which the USA objects. Russia promises to be a good boy in OPEC+. Russia promises in earnest never to use Facebook for the purpose of influencing an American election. Russia promises not to object to any country applying for NATO membership (including itself). Would any of these do the trick? If so, is anyone willing to propose them? If you liked this post from Talleyrand, why not share it? |