Violence Erupts Again in Nagorno-Karabakh
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Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated on Tuesday, marking their deadliest exchange since the 2020 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which ended in a cease-fire agreement brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. At least 49 Armenian soldiers and 50 Azerbaijani service members were killed in the latest large-scale clash, according to officials on each side.
Armenia and Azerbaijan each blamed the other for the escalation. The two sides have fought over Nagorno-Karabakh for decades: It is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it is mostly populated by Armenians. In 2020, Azerbaijan took over part of the region, as well as reclaiming areas it previously held. As part of the cease-fire agreement, around 2,000 Russian peacekeepers have remained in Nagorno-Karabakh—a relatively modest presence. Armenia and Azerbaijan have not reached a formal peace agreement.
Russia’s role in the region may be complicated by its war in Ukraine, where it has lost significant ground in the last week and remains under intensifying pressure from Ukrainian troops. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that Putin had appealed for calm in Nagorno-Karabakh. “It is difficult to overestimate the role of the Russian Federation, the role of Putin personally,” Peskov said. “The president is naturally making every effort to help deescalate tensions at the border.”
The latest violence in Nagorno-Karabakh follows a series of flare-ups in recent months, reflecting the geopolitical ripple effects in the region since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Azerbaijan, which has links to Turkey and received Ankara’s military support in 2020, may perceive Russia’s faltering status in the region as an opportunity to make more territorial claims. “As Russia has been drawn more deeply in the conflict in Ukraine, including the losses it’s had over the last couple of weeks, you’re seeing Azerbaijan test what it can do,” said Jonathan Katz, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
“I really see a weakening of Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus … because of the impact of not only the military losses, but also the economic losses because of sanctions and other measures that make Russia a much weaker country today and less able to project power than it was pre-Feb. 24,” he added.
Meanwhile, other countries have pushed for a formal agreement—with the European Union taking the lead—beyond the realm of security. Along with Russia, the United States and France both co-chair the Minsk Group, which aims to encourage peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The European Council president just hosted a meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Aug. 31.
But as the latest escalation shows, such face-to-face negotiations have so far yielded little. “Russia has played this role where it plays one side off the other without real interest in seeing a resolution,” Katz said. “One has to wonder who has leverage right now—real leverage—to bring these two sides together and find a path forward that doesn’t involve violence.”