Fear of conflict - the key to managing Taiwan tensions
Disagreement
and lack of trust dog cross-strait issues, but there is one thing
China, Taiwan and the US are agreed on – conflict avoidance. This shared
priority should serve as a starting point for managing tensions.
By Ryan Hass
Published by the Straits Times on 26 September 2022
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/fear-of-conflict-the-key-to-managing-taiwan-tensions
Is the situation in the Taiwan Strait on a one-way escalator to eventual conflict?
Given
the persistent ratcheting up of tensions in the Taiwan Strait in recent
years, it is becoming easier for analysts to argue that the situation
will continue to escalate until it reaches a breaking point. Such lazy
cynicism is dangerous, though. The hard reality is that there is no
military solution to tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Any
conflict in the Taiwan Strait that involves the United States and China
would mark the first war in human history between two nuclear-armed
powers with long-range strike, cyber and space capabilities.
Given
the national identities of the actors involved, it is hard to conceive
of any side surrendering to the other. Thus, short of threatening the
absolute destruction of the other side(s), there is no plausible path to
war termination.
There
also is no guarantee that any conflict, once launched, would remain
limited in geographic or military scope. More likely, a conflict in the
Taiwan Strait would lead to the global economy being shattered, real
risk of nuclear escalation and generational setbacks for all countries
involved in the fighting.
Even
in spite of these inescapable risks, a key challenge is that it is
growing harder for policymakers to foresee future scenarios that avoid
conflict.
This
problem has both a proximate dimension and a deeper structural
component. At a proximate level, former US State Department assistant
secretary Daniel Russel has rightly observed: "The dialogues and the
mechanisms that have in the past restrained escalation and fostered some
sort of resolution of an incident aren't working right now… The problem
is that right now, an accident quickly becomes a crisis and a crisis
could lead to conflict."
At
a deeper level, the risk is that all sides are growing concerned about
their capacity to protect their vital interests. Many in Washington are
alarmed that China's combination of expanding military capabilities and
shrinking strategic patience could portend future conflict.
There
also are concerns in Taipei that President Xi Jinping will feel a
personal legacy requirement to show progress in pulling Taiwan closer to
China. As Mr Xi dismantles collective decision-making and concentrates
power in himself, so the argument goes, risks could rise.
Conversely,
in Beijing, there is concern that Washington is using Taiwan to split
and weaken China, and that Washington is reflexively opposed to
unification, peaceful or otherwise.
The
one interest that all three sides at present share is that they each
view avoidance of conflict as serving their interests. In other words,
they do not agree on what to do. They do not hold out hope of building
trust. They only agree on what to avoid. This shared priority on
conflict avoidance should serve as the starting point for managing
tensions.
Steps to mitigate risk
To
this end, there are a few practical steps available to mitigate risk.
One step is to shrink space for surprises and miscalculation.
Predictability, steadiness, transparency and direct dialogue all limit
miscalculation.
Washington
and Beijing each want the other side to change course over Taiwan. They
both must recognise that their ability to influence the other will be
enhanced if they register their requests and concerns privately rather
than air grievances publicly.
Direct,
authoritative and private communications reduce the reputational costs
to the other side of adjusting course, whereas public statements or
actions virtually guarantee the other side will harden its posture to
avoid being perceived as caving in to demands from the other.
In
this spirit, it also is important for leaders in Taipei, Washington and
Beijing to allow the other sides to preserve confidence in their theory
of the case for managing cross-strait tensions. Cross-strait stability
is strengthened when each side can tell itself a story that time is on
its side.
Taiwan's
theory of the case is that by improving its democratic governance,
sustaining credible deterrence and deepening links with like-minded
democratic countries, it will be able to withstand pressure from
Beijing. Over time, Taiwan could serve as a source of attraction and
emulation, leading to future evolutions in China's governance model.
Beijing's
theory of the case is that the asymmetry in power between China and
Taiwan is tilting towards China, more so with each passing year. So,
too, is China's capacity to hold American forces at risk from
intervening in cross-strait contingencies.
Beijing
believes Washington is weakening itself from within and America's best
days are behind it. It holds out hope that with time and improvements to
its domestic circumstances, the people of Taiwan will conclude that
their interests are best served by entering political negotiations.
There
also is very little risk of Taiwan changing its legal identity, either
towards independence or unification. Any change likely would require a
constitutional amendment. The bar to changing the Constitution is
exceedingly high in Taiwan. To date, its voters have demonstrated a
stronger preference for sustaining the status quo than they have for any
specific outcome to cross-strait differences.
Given
this reality, it is unwise for Washington to pre-empt problems from the
future by predetermining cross-strait outcomes it would accept or
oppose. America's interests are better served by remaining anchored in
principles it shares with the rest of the region - support for
preservation of cross-strait peace and stability, and opposition to
unilateral changes to the status quo.
Given
these dynamics, now is not the time for any party to force a showdown
in the Taiwan Strait. The minimum requirement for all sides is to avoid
conflict. If leaders in Washington, Taipei or Beijing perceive they are
riding a one-way escalator to conflict, they should step off it and give
the other sides the political space to do the same.
Ryan
Hass is a senior fellow and the Michael H. Armacost Chair in the
Foreign Policy programme at Brookings Institution. He is also the
Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies. This article was
first published on the website of the Asian Peace Programme, an
initiative to promote peace in Asia housed in the Asia Research
Institute, National University of Singapore. |