Analysis: China's intensifying nuclear-armed submarine patrols add complexity for U.S., allies
A
nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic missile submarine of the
Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is seen during a military
display in the South China Sea April 12, 2018. Picture taken April 12,
2018. REUTERS/Stringer
HONG
KONG, April 4 (Reuters) - China is for the first time keeping at least
one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea,
according to a Pentagon report - adding pressure on the United States
and its allies as they try to counter Beijing's growing military.
The
assessment of China's military said China's fleet of six Jin-class
ballistic missile submarines were operating "near-continuous" patrols
from Hainan Island into the South China Sea. Equipped with a new,
longer-range ballistic missile, they can hit the continental United
States, analysts say.
The
note in the 174-page report drew little attention when it was released
in late November, but shows crucial improvements in Chinese
capabilities, according to four regional military attaches familiar with
naval operations and five other security analysts.
Even
as the AUKUS deal will see Australia field its first nuclear-powered
submarines over the next two decades, the constant Chinese ballistic
missile patrols at sea pile strain on the resources of the United States
and its allies as they intensify Cold War-style deployments.
"We're
going to want to have our SSNs trying to tail them... so the extra
demands on our assets are clear," said Christopher Twomey, a security
scholar at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in California, speaking in
a private capacity. SSN is a U.S. designation for a nuclear-powered
attack sub. "But the point here is that the information – the near
continuous patrols – has changed so rapidly that we don't know what else
has changed."
The
new patrols imply improvements in many areas, including logistics,
command and control, and weapons. They also show how China starting to
operate its ballistic missile submarines in much the same way the United
States, Russia, Britain and France have for decades, military attaches,
former submariners and security analysts say.
Their
"deterrence patrols" allow them to threaten a nuclear counterattack
even if land-based missiles and systems are destroyed. Under classic
nuclear doctrine, that deters an adversary from launching an initial
strike.
The
Chinese subs are now being equipped with a third-generation missile,
the JL-3, General Anthony Cotton, the commander of the U.S. Strategic
Command, told a congressional hearing in March.
With
an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometres (6,214 miles) and
carrying multiple warheads, the JL-3 allows China to reach the
continental United States from Chinese coastal waters for the first
time, the Pentagon report notes.
Previous
reports had said the JL-3 was not expected to be deployed until China
launched its next-generation Type-096 submarines in coming years.
The
Chinese defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment on
the Pentagon report and its submarine deployments. The Pentagon did not
comment on its earlier assessments or whether the Chinese deployments
posed an operational challenge.
The
U.S. Navy keeps about two dozen nuclear-powered attack subs based
across the Pacific, including in Guam and Hawaii, according to the
Pacific Fleet. Under AUKUS, U.S. and British nuclear-powered subs will
be deployed out of Western Australia from 2027.
Such
submarines are the core weapons for hunting ballistic missile subs,
backed by surface ships and P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft. The U.S.
also has seabed sensors in key sea lanes to help detect submarines.
Timothy
Wright, a defence analyst at London's International Institute for
Strategic Studies, said U.S. forces could probably cope with the
situation now, but would have to commit more assets in the next 10 to 15
years once the stealthier Type-096 patrols begin.
China's
rapid expansion of its nuclear forces mean U.S. strategists must
contend with two "nuclear peer adversaries" for the first time, along
with Russia, he added.
"That
will be of concern to the United States because it will stretch U.S.
defences, hold more targets at risk, and they will need addressing with
additional conventional and nuclear capabilities," he said.
COMMAND AUTHORITY
China's
navy has for years been thought to have the capability for deterrence
patrols, but issues with command, control and communications have slowed
their deployment, the military attaches and analysts say.
Communications are crucial and complex for ballistic missile subs, which
must remain hidden as part of their mission.
The
Jin-class subs, expected to be replaced by the Type-096 over the next
decade, are relatively noisy and easy to track, the military attaches
said.
"Something
concerning command authority must have also changed, but we just don't
have very good opportunities to talk to the Chinese about this kind of
stuff," Twomey said.
The
Chinese military has emphasised that the Central Military Commission,
headed by President Xi Jinping, is the only nuclear command authority.
Hans
Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the
Federation of American Scientists, said he believed command and
communications issues remained a "work in progress".
"While
China probably has made progress on establishing secure and
operationally meaningful command and control between the Central
Military Commission and the SSBNs, it seems unlikely that the capability
is complete or necessarily fully battle hardened," he said, using the
designation letters for a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.
Two
researchers at a Chinese navy training institute in Nanjing warned in a
2019 underwater-warfare journal of poor command organisation and
co-ordination among submarine forces. The paper also urged improvements
in submarine-launched nuclear strike capability.
The
navy must "strengthen ballistic missile nuclear submarines on patrol at
sea, so as to ensure that they have the means and capabilities to carry
out secondary nuclear counterattack operations when necessary," the
researchers wrote.
SOUTH CHINA SEA 'BASTION'
With
the advent of the JL-3 missile, Kristensen and other analysts expect
Chinese strategists to keep their ballistic missile subs in the deep
waters of the South China Sea - which China has fortified with a string
of bases - rather than risk patrols in the Western Pacific.
Collin
Koh, a security fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, said China could keep its ballistic missile
submarines in a "bastion" of protected waters near its shores.
"If
I was the planner, I would want to keep my strategic deterrence assets
as close to me as possible, and the South China Sea is perfect for
that," Koh said.
Russia
is thought to keep most of its 11 ballistic missile submarines largely
in bastions off its Arctic coasts, while U.S., French and British boats
roam more widely, three analysts said.
Kristensen
said the more numerous Chinese submarine deployments have meant the PLA
and U.S. militaries increasingly "rub up" against each other -
increasing the odds of accidental conflict.
"The
Americans of course are trying to poke into that bastion and see what
they can do, and what they need to do, so that is where the tension can
build and incidents happen," he said.
Reporting
By Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Eduardo Baptista in Beijing; Additional
reporting by Idrees Ali in Washington; Editing by Gerry Doyle.