The massive public protest sparked early last week by Netanyahu’s announcement of the dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant led to the freezing of the judicial overhaul legislation and the resumption of talks between the coalition and the opposition, under the auspices of President Isaac Herzog. But at this point there are no signs of progress in this or any other communication channel.
Sources close to the talks say the government shows no signs of flexibility regarding the composition of the Judicial Appointments Committee, a critical component of its program.
The coalition’s representatives continue to demand control over filling the first two openings on the Supreme Court that become available in a given Knesset term, as well as choosing the court’s next president after Justice Esther Hayut retires from the post in October, at the age of 70. Opposition figures are still trying to figure out whether the coalition’s insistence on these points is only a negotiation tactic, based on Likud’s assessment that Benny Gantz and his National Unity Party colleagues in the Knesset will bow to pressure and agree to concessions and compromise, or an ideological position from which Netanyahu and his partners will not retreat.
The question now is whether the latest security events have reshuffled the deck. Escalation in the territories, and certainly a possible conflict in Lebanon, could completely take over the agenda and force the opposition to reexamine its steps. At the same time, this could also be the signal for Netanyahu to announce the shelving of the government coup plan, which so far has only put the country into a tailspin without yielding any benefits for him. It is also clear that a concrete security escalation will end, at least temporarily, the reservists’ threats not to report for active duty.
The prime minister devoted the days leading up to Passover to widely documented visits to military and security agencies. His visit to the IDF General Staff forum resulted in a rather odd video, circulated on social media, showing Gallant greeting Netanyahu, who ignores him. Afterward, Netanyahu briefly thanks the generals for the IDF’s contribution to national security.
But when the cameras left, it became clear that the prime minister wasn’t quite feeling the holiday atmosphere. He treated the chief of staff and the generals to a long and occasionally scolding lecture. Much of Netanyahu’s anger was directed at the reservists’ protest, a topic he has addressed publicly on several occasions recently. According to him, the IDF’s high command is not doing enough to combat what he calls insubordination. “You are an army that costs the state 70 billion shekels [$19.36 billion] a year – and you went on strike against the government,” Netanyahu berated the general. “It’s inconceivable. Reservists cannot do as they please.”
He reiterated several times the claim that the reservists’ threats not to report for duty constitutes “drawing the threat of an IDF walkout from the scabbard.” He compared the crisis in Israel to the violent demonstrations in France over President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age. “Why doesn’t the army there think to strike?” he complained. He ignored the fact that France’s army is a professional body that is not based on mandatory service for young people and does not depend on the motivation of reservists to report for service.
The traditional holiday toast was conducted in an uneasy atmosphere, with Netanyahu hurling accusations at the army and even referring in detail to the political dispute over the judiciary, although it’s doubtful the forum cares about it greatly. One general who tried to rebut the accusations against the reservists was quickly silenced. Gallant, who only the day before received a conditional easing of his sentence and a freeze of his dismissal, did not intervene.
It’s not hard to guess what happened. In the first round of the fight against the government coup, the reservists’ protest took center stage and scored significant wins. The mass threat of refusal to report for duty by pilots and navigators, followed by Military Intelligence reservists, created a serious problem for the coalition. It also troubled IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, who warned the political leadership about the implications. When Gallant expressed these reservations in public, bringing in the tense security situation, Netanyahu took steps to silence him. He even announced his removal, but had to backtrack after his puzzling dismissal announcement, as noted, brought hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets in a spontaneous protest.
Ahead of the second round, when the Knesset reconvenes in early May, Netanyahu is trying to reimpose order on the military, to drill the generals, as it were. He may succeed. The General Staff Forum has always been fairly obedient. The last general who resigned from the IDF over a matter of principle was Udi Adam, the head of the Northern Command, who quit the military in September 2006, shortly after the Second Lebanon War, amid criticism of his performance during the fighting.
But Netanyahu’s problem with the defense establishment goes far beyond the generals, or the IDF. If the security escalation is halted, he is likely to try to advance the government coup again. The passage of the legislation in May will be met not only by large numbers of reservists refusing call-up orders. One can assume that mid-rank officers in the career army will desert, and that the practice will spread to the rest of the defense and security agencies. From past experience, the officers in the middle ranks who will follow their conscience are precisely the ones who were expected to lead these organizations in the years to come. Among the serious potential consequences of the judicial overhaul is a concrete decline in the quality of the command level in all organizations. This is a development that should worry every Israeli, not least the prime minister.