TOKYO -- The confrontation between the U.S. and China has entered a dangerous new phase. If tensions mount further, it could result in an unintended military clash between the two superpowers.
On April 5, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, where the two lauded the strong bonds between Washington and Taipei. Tsai also stopped in New York in late March as part of her tour of the U.S. and Central America. Compared with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island last August, when China conducted a large-scale military exercise, the Chinese military's response has so far been more subdued. However, tensions between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan issue are likely to increase, rather than ease in the near future.
The bilateral relationship began to deteriorate in the second half of the 2010s, with the two countries now in dispute over a wide range of issues, including military, political and economic. Mired in mutual distrust, the two nations tend to see malicious intent in almost everything the other party does. Relations, which could now be described as stormy, could become a hurricane.
There are signs that China may have started exporting military equipment to Russia, which has invaded Ukraine. Multiple diplomacy experts in Washington say the U.S. government has obtained information about Chinese shipments of parts for fighter jets and drones to Russia.
The big question is whether Beijing will start sending "lethal" weapons to Moscow, a move that could make it a clear enemy of the U.S. by directly supporting Russian forces in Ukraine.
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden does not believe that China has decided to supply such arms to Russia, at least not yet, according to the experts. But U.S. policymakers believe that Beijing is aware of Chinese military parts flowing into Russia and might consider upgrading its aid to the country if Moscow faces a devastating defeat, said the pundits.
These views indicate growing enmity between the two nations. Bilateral ties have deteriorated in three stages and have now reached what looks like a new cold war.
The first phase took place in the second half of the 2010s, spanning from the latter part of former U.S. President Barack Obama's second term to the third year of his successor Donald Trump. China's naval expansion in the South China Sea and cyberespionage were the main causes of the worsening ties. After Trump entered the White House, a trade war also broke out, increasing friction.
The second phase began in 2020, when the new coronavirus started spreading around the world. The virus claimed more than 1 million American lives. The U.S. blamed China's communist regime, arguing that its suppression of free speech and the media allowed a cover-up of the initial outbreak in Wuhan and helped fuel the pandemic. China, on the other hand, became suspicious that Washington's real goal was toppling its government.
The acrimonious relationship entered the third phase in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. While the U.S. helps to finance and arm Kyiv in an effort to defeat Russia, China has kept defending Moscow's aggression. The U.S. and China have effectively entered a fight over the world order. It was still possible for the two nations to reconcile differences over such issues as naval expansions or cyberespionage, but compromise is now difficult as they are fighting over political systems, or perhaps a new world order.
In predicting the future of bilateral relations, one key element is Washington's China strategy. Experts within and outside the U.S. government say there are three different approaches to China in Washington that pursue separate goals: winning long-term strategic competition, containment, and weakening China's communist regime.
The one that has the broadest support among policymakers and lawmakers is the first. Based on the assumption that the competition for global supremacy will continue for some time, this strategy focuses on boosting U.S. technological and military might to counter China's bid for hegemony.
The second goal is more aggressive, as it seeks to contain China. In addition to enhancing the U.S.'s own competitive edge, the strategy tries to thwart China's technological and military ambitions through economic sanctions and trade embargoes. But the formula is distinctly different from the comprehensive policy used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, as the new strategy targets only key areas of competition, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
The third option is the most radical, as it aims to eviscerate the Chinese communist regime. It will seek to weaken the party's grip on power by supporting anti-government forces and ethnic minorities in China. There are, however, only a very small group of lawmakers and experts supporting such an approach.
The Biden White House has been pursuing the first goal by trying to boost America's competitive edge. But it has also begun to make some containment moves in high-tech areas. The administration has, for instance, curbed exports of cutting-edge semiconductor technologies in what a former senior U.S. official described as a "virtual containment of China in the high-tech area."
Beijing has reacted strongly by denouncing all three approaches as hostile moves to undermine its rule. In his early March speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping blasted the U.S. for trying to hamper China's development through "all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us."
Tensions between the U.S. and China could remain dangerously high for decades. Hence, the two countries should first establish a mechanism to prevent any misunderstanding from triggering an armed conflict. Washington has repeatedly suggested to Beijing that they should build guardrails by expanding their security dialogue and establishing an effective hotline. But Beijing has refused, saying the U.S. must end its "hostile" words and deeds first.
The Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union escalated to the brink of a full-scale nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. With de-escalating tensions over the Taiwan Strait now ever more urgent, there is no time to waste on diplomatic horse-trading. China should agree to create a safety mechanism to prevent an unintended clash with the U.S.