DAVID, WHO
runs a well-trafficked shoe-shine stand at a huge convention centre
just outside Washington, was in a good mood as he surveyed the delegates
at a recent event there. They were attending the ARPA-E summit, an annual pow-wow put on by the Department of Energy (DoE),
and were tipping well. A few weeks earlier, when Donald Trump spoke at
that same venue at a gathering of conservative Republicans, David was
forced to shut down his stand and lost business. It is not his only
grumble about Mr Trump: “When he ran for office he promised to drain the
swamp, but he turned out to be the biggest crocodile of them all.”
David
is right. During Mr Trump’s presidency, lobbyists for every corporate
interest went into high gear to try to influence the unorthodox
administration of Beltway outsiders. Lots of unfamiliar swamp creatures
turned up, too, when they realised that having the ear of the last
person to speak to Mr Trump before he made a big decision was lobbying
gold. They have since slithered away. But, with up to $800bn in
clean-energy handouts now up for grabs over the coming decade, another
invasive species is taking their place.
The
energy industry as a whole spent nearly $300m last year on lobbying,
the most since 2013 (see chart 1). Big oil and electric utilities, which
had been reducing their spending on influence-seeking before 2020, have
ramped it up again;
spending is growing in line with that of the biggest lobbyists, big
pharma. Renewables firms went from spending an annual average of around
$24m between 2013 and 2020, to $38m in 2021 and $47m in 2022. “We’ve now
got an interesting new ecosystem of swamp creatures here,” says the
government-relations man at one of the world’s biggest renewable-energy
companies.
The reason is the passage last year of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The misnamed law funnels at least $369bn in direct subsidies and tax
credits to decarbonisation-related sectors (see chart 2). It came on the
heels of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law,
which also shovels billions in subsidies towards clean infrastructure.
Some of the laws offer generous tax credits, with no caps on the amount
of spending eligible for the incentives. A mad investment rush, should
it materialise, could therefore lead to public expenditure of $800bn
over the next decade. An official at a big utility says her firm has
projects in the works across America that, if successful, will secure a
staggering $2bn in funding from the two laws. The renewables firm’s
government-relations man confesses, “We stopped counting...we just have a
big smile on our faces all the time these days.” “There is a lot there
for a lot of people,” sums up a business-chamber grandee. And, he adds,
“A lot of lobbyists are interested in the spending.”
The
green influence brokers can be spotted in all the usual places,
starting with Capitol Hill. A long-time lobbyist-watcher reckons that
the IRA “is the most targeted bill of the last 20 years”.
More than 2,000 groups had officially declared their interest in the
congressional sausage-making that produced the gargantuan law last year.
The IRA and the infrastructure law are now on the
statute books, of course. But buttering up congressmen and senators may
still be worth the effort. “The administration still has to present
budgets and members of Congress still have their say,” explains one
senior DoE official turned adviser. And,
adds a lobbyist for a rising “climate-tech” investment firm, “A member
of Congress can always ask a question in a hearing or send a letter of
complaint to the White House.”
The
White House itself is another target. A partner at a top lobbying firm
explains that for potentially lucrative but politically explosive
issues, “we have been told these are big politically contentious issues
so people in the White House want to be looped in.” These include
local-content requirements for electric-vehicle manufacturing and the
maximum carbon intensity for hydrogen to be considered “clean”. On such
matters, the partner says, John Podesta, President Joe Biden’s wrangler
for all things climate and energy, “makes the final call”. Love Mr
Podesta or hate him, says one energy operative not in the loving camp,
“he has a reputation for being practical, and focused on getting things
done.”
Two executive-branch agencies rank high on the green lobbyists’ hit list. The DoE’s
experts will decide which sectors and technologies to prioritise; just
its Loan Programmes Office, which aims to provide “debt financing for
commercial deployment of large-scale energy projects”, now has a
mind-boggling $400bn to lend out, for example. Another target is the
Treasury Department, and in particular the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), whose tax experts are fleshing out the rules for green tax credits.
The DoE is the more welcoming of the two. “Of course you can lobby the DoE,” says Brian McCormack, a former DoE
chief of staff. “Companies go there all the time to talk about what
they’re doing.” One challenge now, Mr McCormack says, is that many
government employees are still not going into the office regularly. It’s
harder to make your case on the phone or via video conference, he
reckons.
It is harder still at the IRS,
which, the clean-tech-investment lobbyist says, “is immune to direct
lobbying”. Getting through to the taxmen is possible but requires a more
subtle approach. A law firm renowned for its tax expertise has secured a
coveted meeting with officials on behalf of a client in part, says one
of its partners, by submitting “really good comments” and clever
technical papers on the relevant subject. Many IRS
officials know their tax law in and out but have little understanding of
energy. “You have to have credibility for them to see you and you have
to bring them solutions,” she explains.
For
the lobbyists’ corporate clients, such considerations put a premium on
certain sets of skills. One group in high demand is experts in finance
and accounting, especially in niche areas such as tax-equity
transactions (in which investors agree to fund a project in return for
the right to claim a tax benefit) or the ins and outs of whether tax
credits can be transferred or stacked on top of each other. One
clean-energy lobbyist observes that the new climate-related laws are
more complicated than anything in the past, yet the number of people
working on them in industry and in government has not changed. “With so
much more complexity,” he says, “it is worth paying for your service if
you can parse through something in half an hour that takes someone else
eight hours.”
Another sought-after
group are energy nerds. A long-time advocate of upgrading the power grid
reports gleefully that he is suddenly very popular as electrifying
industries struggle to work out how to get transmission lines and other
power infrastructure built. Specialists in nascent technologies on which
the new laws shower subsidies, such as carbon removal, which prevents
emitted CO2 from entering the atmosphere or sucks it back
once it is out, are also in demand. “We are Treasury whisperers,” boasts
the top government-relations expert at a climate-tech fund. The group’s
investments in things like carbon capture and hydrogen electrolysis
have given it deep expertise in these areas, which it is sharing with
the tax bureaucrats. It is also sweet-talking environmentalists, whose
“ignorant and aggressive positions early on” were often caused by
unfamiliarity with either the new technologies or the tax code.
The
billions of dollars going out through grants, meanwhile, has raised the
stature of advisers with experience in writing grant applications. Many
firms are baffled by having to write 30-page proposals and working out
things like who exactly counts as a “non-federal partner”. Some of the
grants now on offer “can make or break a business model”, notes Mr
McCormack. Take a company going after half a dozen DoE
grants worth $10m apiece, he says. “Isn’t it worth $100,000 to get a
professional to help you put together a proposal, identify which offices
on Capitol Hill you should visit and get a strategy together?”
Specialised consultancies are stepping in to provide the corporate IRA
supplicant all these newly prized skills in one place. Boundary Stone
Partners, a prominent example of the trend, employs many former DoE officials. Like Mr McCormack, Boundary Stone’s co-founder, Brandon Hurlbut, served as DoE
chief of staff. Jeff Navin, the other co-founder, says that the firm’s
aim is to act as a translator between clean-energy policymakers,
technologists and investors: “The three groups did not talk the same
language.” Boundary Stone claims to have helped ease the passage of a
demonstration programme for next-generation nuclear reactors (to the
benefit of one of its clients, a nuclear-energy startup backed by Bill
Gates called TerraPower) and to have assisted solar-panel manufacturers
in securing lucrative tax credits for domestic production.
How
much influence these green lobbyists actually wield in Washington is
open to debate. Their clients clearly think they are doing some good.
More surprisingly, so do parts of officialdom. A lobbyist for an
influential environmental group says that critical staff either fled
government or were expelled during the Trump era, leaving agencies
“struggling to get work done”. Against this backdrop, many bureaucrats
see thoughtful lobbyists as helping “get things right”. Rich Powell,
head of ClearPath, a climate-innovation advocacy group influential among
Republicans, believes that they can help strike grand political
bargains, of which the energy transition will need plenty. “Swamps may
be the most vital ecosystem,” he says. ■