A presidential election in Paraguay is hardly a global event. But Sunday’s vote in the landlocked South American nation has suddenly turned into another chapter of the US-China competition.
That’s because Paraguay is one of a dozen countries that still has full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Initiated in 1957 under the fiercely anti-communist dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, the relationship has evolved over the decades thanks to his Colorado Party retaining power for all but five years.
More recently, the cost of ignoring China for Paraguay, one of the world’s top soy exporters and a significant beef producer, has become hefty. Enter Efrain Alegre, the opposition figure fighting head-to-head for the presidency against the government’s candidate, Santiago Peña.
Alegre suggested during the campaign that Paraguay isn’t getting enough out of the relationship and should consider changing sides. While his position appears to be purely pragmatic and he hasn’t explicitly pledged to start relations with China, just floating the issue was enough to stir unease in Washington.
China has wooed several Latin American countries over to its side in recent years, including Panama, El Salvador, Dominican Republic and, last month, Honduras. The Asian giant’s growing influence has been irresistible in a region that produces commodities from copper to grains. Guatemala, the largest economy of the pro-Taiwan group, picks its president in June.
Meanwhile, the US has taken the unusual step of sanctioning two top Paraguayan government figures, Vice President Hugo Velázquez and Colorado Party leader and former President Horacio Cartes, alleging involvement “in systemic corruption that has undermined democratic institutions.”
Regardless of their merits, imposing sanctions on the eve of a crucial vote in a country that has been a historic ally of Washington has the potential to tilt the election as corruption remains a main concern among Paraguayans.
It’d be a geopolitical irony if the US move unintentionally sends Paraguay into China’s arms. — Juan Pablo Spinetto