Ukraine's
President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomes Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister
Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud in Kyiv, on 26 February 2023 (AFP)
While Russia won't be present, it has said that it will observe the talks, in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah, from afar. Brazil, India, Turkey and Japan are set to attend, in addition to a number of other European countries and the United States, with China yet to confirm.
For Riyadh, and in particular Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi
Arabia’s de facto ruler, it's somewhat of a diplomatic coup - perhaps
a crowning achievement for a man who in 2018, following the murder of
journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul, was an international pariah.
Mohammed bin Salman has confounded his critics with mirth and patience. The war in Ukraine
has been a welcome gift to the Saudis, forcing critics, such as US
President Joe Biden, to travel to the Gulf kingdom to repair ties.
Sanctions on energy from Russia, one of the world's top suppliers,
could not go hand in hand with alienating the world's swing producer of
last resort, Saudi Arabia.
Yet this weekend's international summit in Jeddah does bring together
a number of threads, including the crown prince's rehabilitation and
the contours of his country’s emerging political vision for the region,
and its place in the world.
“Rather than tying themselves to particular global camps, key GCC states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE
are now assertively setting their own agendas and balancing between
global players to maximise their gains,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey,
director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European
Council on Foreign Relations.
China’s rise, America’s relative decline in the region, the emergence of regional middleweight powers such as Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia are also slowly changing the dynamics of global politics.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE have embraced emerging
multipolarity," Barnes-Dacey told Middle East Eye. "They both view their
own roles - empowered by the post-Ukraine global pursuit of allies and
energy resources - as that of major shaping actors that no longer need
to accept diktats from external actors.”
Regional leader, global player
Saudi Arabia has also grown increasingly confident in following what it sees as its own priorities.
The crown prince has brushed aside US pleas to increase oil output
and even faced down the ire of the Biden administration by working with
Russia to keep oil prices at a level needed to fund Riyadh’s budget and
big infrastructure projects.
Mohammed bin Salman also took the US administration by surprise earlier this year when he normalised relations with Iran, in negotiations brokered by China.
'MBS sees that Saudi Arabia could benefit from the changing dynamics
in the world order… and gain more ground for strategic balancing'
- Abdullah Baabood, Carnegie Middle East Center
Sensing that the Biden administration wants a major diplomatic
breakthrough in the region by getting Saudi Arabia to normalise
relations with Israel, the crown prince has made it clear that he will not play ball without receiving some major concessions.
One of Riyadh's key conditions on normalisation of relations with Israel is help from the United States to create a civil nuclear programme, according to reports.
By sending Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, to Jeddah
this weekend the Biden administration looks keen to honour the summit
with a senior administration official and perhaps butter up the kingdom
with a level of respect it has long felt it deserves.
The peace summit on Ukraine is also about Saudi Arabia bringing
together western countries and the global south, which have eschewed
sanctions on Russia, Abdullah Baabood, a non-resident scholar at the
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told MEE.
“This goes in line with Mohammed bin Salman's new vision, his
strategic aim and ambitions for Saudi Arabia to be a regional leader and
an important global player,” said Baabood.
Like many in the global south, Saudi Arabia avoided “curtailing their
balanced positions [on the war in Ukraine] and their strategic
autonomy” as a result of western pressure, he added.
“MBS sees that Saudi Arabia could benefit from the changing dynamics
in the world order and the rise of China and other global powers to
recalibrate the kingdom's relations with the US and gain more ground for
strategic balancing and more space for manoeuvre,” said Baabood.
For Saudi Arabia's investment minister, Khalid Al-Falih, a new,
multipolar world has emerged, one that is no longer dominated by the
West.
"We like to believe, and I think it’s been proven, that the kingdom
is a significant part of this multipolar world that has emerged. And
we’re going to play our part, not only in developing our own economy,
but also developing our region," Falih said in a recent interview.
Saudi-first foreign policy
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is also keen to support the
Saudi peace initiative, in a bid to corral allies in any future final
settlement.
Perhaps the image that best encapsulates Riyadh's new political
vision came when, in June, Zelensky, at the invitation of Mohammed bin
Salman, gave a surprise speech at the Arab League summit, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a staunch Russian ally, was welcomed back into the regional fold by Saudi Arabia after almost a decade.
The optics were easy to interpret: Saudi Arabia is happy to provide a
platform to different visions of global power, but, in the end, it will
pick and choose from both.
While similar peace talks in Copenhagen failed to produce any
discernible results, Saudi Arabia can claim that it’s keeping up the
diplomatic momentum on finding a peaceful outcome to the conflict, while
shielding itself from criticism that it's allying too closely with
Russia.
[Mohammed bin Salman wants to be seen] as a goodwill facilitator of
peace talks involving a conflict that has underlined and accentuated a
major global rift'
- Yonatan Touval, Mitvim
“The talks seem more about coordinating a global consensus on the
general parameters for a possible solution that would be acceptable to
Ukraine,” said Yonatan Touval, an analyst at the Israeli Institute for
Regional Foreign Policies (Mitvim).
“For Mohammed bin Salman, the content of the talks is less important
than the auspices - that is, his diplomatic stance as a goodwill
facilitator of peace talks involving a conflict that has underlined and
accentuated a major global rift.”
There are also signs that the 37-year-old crown prince is acutely aware that regional conflicts, such as in Yemen, and diplomatic spats with important regional players have not served the kingdom well.
“In this context, it is noteworthy that Riyadh has been mending its
fences with both Doha and Ankara even as it has sought to replicate and
ultimately outperform them both,” said Touval. "Hence, too, the thawing
of relations with Tehran."
While the Ukraine talks in Jeddah certainly contribute to meeting
some of these objectives, it's “unclear at this stage how effective
their efforts will be”, Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst at the
International Crisis Group, told MEE.
“Saudi Arabia is diversifying its political and economic relations
with global powers, in line with the realities of an increasingly
multipolar world order. But even as Saudi Arabia increases ties with
China and Russia, the US will remain its primary security partner for
the foreseeable future.”