Russia's ghost fleet: Moscow's new oil routes
Investigation
Since Europe's embargo on Russian oil exports, aging, clandestine tankers have been transporting oil and conducting transshipment operations from one vessel to another. Their destination is Asia, but the crude oil is sometimes re-exported to Europe after being refined.
An environmental disaster was narrowly averted on May 1, off the coast of Malaysia. On that day, the Pablo, an old tanker with a rusty hull capable of storing up to 700,000 barrels of oil, was sailing on calm seas just a few nautical miles from the small paradise island of Pulau Tinggi when its 232-meter-long, 42-meter-wide steel carcass was violently shaken by an explosion. "When I opened my cabin door, I saw smoke everywhere," said the ship's captain, Oleksandr Lepyoshkin, a few days later. "It looked like war, there were explosions everywhere and there was thick smoke suffocating us." Part of the hull was blown away by the explosion. Luckily, it was empty: The tanker had just unloaded its cargo in China. For three long days, the Malaysian coastguard circled helplessly around the smoking wreck, not daring to approach for fear of further explosions. Of the 28 crew members, two Indians and one Ukrainian were not found.
The Pablo intrigued the coast guards. At 27, it is unusually old for a tanker, which rarely sail for more than 20 or 25 years. On the verge of being scrapped in 2018, it was bought at the last minute by an Indian specialist in end-of-life vessels, who renamed and stripped it. It changed owners several times, was struck off by several flag states following its involvement in circumventing sanctions against Iran, before finally being registered in Gabon, a flag state known for its lax regulations.
According to data Le Monde received from Kpler, a firm specializing in maritime data analysis, the Pablo was carrying a highly polluting heavy fuel oil used as fuel or to generate electricity, especially in Asia. After a long period of transporting fuel oil from Iran, which is under sanctions, the latest shipment most probably came from Russia, according to Kpler, via several transshipments on the high seas: First in the Strait of Gibraltar, south of Spain, then near Malaysia from the vessel Ocean Hermana.
The number of clandestine vessels specialized in circumventing sanctions, like the Pablo, is increasing. According to estimates, they represent 10-20% of the total transport capacity of the world's tanker fleet, or between 300 and 600 vessels. Previously accustomed to dropping their anchors off Iran, Venezuela or North Korea, these tankers have been in high demand since the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil imports in December 2022. At the same time, G7 countries prohibited their companies from insuring or providing the slightest service to a company transporting Russian oil sold at over $60 a barrel. This measure was designed to prevent oil prices from escalating, while at the same time limiting Moscow's revenues. In a shipping industry where Western companies are indispensable, as in insurance and certification, it is virtually impossible for Russia to sell its oil for less than $60 unless it is transported clandestinely.
Higher risk of damage
Transshipment operations, as practiced by so-called ghost tankers, often serve to conceal the origin of the oil being transported. Ships switch off their AIS transponders, a navigation system that sends information on their position and speed, to conceal transshipments. Some even send false information about their location. The Israeli start-up Windward has calculated that the number of ships departing from Russia that have switched off their AIS transponders rose by 75% worldwide between the first and second quarters, and even by 140% in the Black Sea over this period. A vessel that switches off its transponder is no longer visible on radar, and is therefore more dangerous as it risks being collided with. For these older-than-average vessels, registered under lax flag states, the risks of damage are higher.
These oil freebooters give insurers cold sweats. "If one of them collides with one of our insured vessels and they are at fault, then we can't be compensated, and vice versa," said Justus Heinrich, global head of marine insurance products at Allianz, "And if it has an accident and causes an oil spill, no liability insurer will pay for the rescue or the remediation of environmental damage." The owners are just as ghostly as their ships. It's impossible to trace the owner of the Pablo, hidden behind a shell company registered in the Marshall Islands. There's also no trace of the company in charge of the technical inspection or the insurer. At the end of June, the Pablo was still rusting away at the entrance to the Singapore Strait, waiting to be towed away.
Beyond the rise of clandestine fleets, the EU embargo has also redrawn the maritime routes of Russian oil, whose share of European imports has dropped from 31% in January 2022 to 3% in March 2023. With new outlets in Asia, these routes have lengthened by around 20 days, while Europe has to source supplies from further afield, such as the US, Brazil or Angola. "The longer distances have increased transport times and therefore the demand for tankers, which in turn has led to higher freight and vessel prices," said Matthew Wright, an analyst at Kpler.
Source: Kpler
Infographic Le Monde : Francesca Fattori and Riccardo Pravettoni
Map produced with the help of Homayoun Falakshahi, senior oil analyst at Kpler.
Logistics have also had to be reinvented. As Russian ports in the eastern Baltic Sea cannot accommodate the giant tankers used for long-distance voyages, hubs have sprung up off the coasts of Greece and Spain, where large ships pick up the cargo of smaller vessels. "Kalamata, off the Greek coast, has become a major hub for maritime traffic, because that is where ships leaving Russian ports on the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea meet on their way to Asia." Another advantage is the local presence of numerous Greek shipping companies.
Name changes
With the lengthening of routes, a shortage of ships looms on the horizon, especially since some carriers are refusing to serve Russia to avoid damaging their reputation."The risk of taking on sanctioned cargo has increased since the sanctions on Russian products have been introduced, and the so-called ghost fleet is a matter of concern for us, it means that there is a growing number of vessels we need to be concerned about when doing business," said Maersk Tankers, which has decided that its 150 vessels will no longer go to Russia. But where is it possible to find ships to transport Russian oil, even legally? This multi-billion-dollar problem was quickly solved.
A Frenchman saw an opportunity to make a fortune, albeit at the risk of indirectly fueling the Russian war effort. A graduate of the Edhec business school, Mathieu Philippe first worked in Geneva and then in Dubai, where he specialized in shipping before co-founding Fractal Shipping in 2022, which transports millions of barrels of crude oil from Russian ports to Asia. When contacted by Le Monde, a lobbyist who answered on his behalf. Grace Fenstermaker works for the firm Geopols, whose mission, as its website states, is to "inform, influence and transform opinions" to help "companies, corporations and high-net-worth individuals manager their worldwide reputations."
Are Russian investors financing Philippe's company in order to secure the transport of their oil? Fractal Shipping has only just confirmed that it transports Russian oil, without revealing the identity of its shareholders or investors, or the number of vessels it operates or owns. According to the Equasis database, Fractal Shipping manages a fleet of at least 24 tankers, all of which sail almost exclusively to Russia. Some of these are covered by both Western and Russian (Ingosstrakh) insurance, should the Western company discover a sanctions violation and refuse compensation in the event of an accident.
The charterer specifies that it scrupulously respects all international sanctions regimes, and supposedly respects rigorous standards in terms of safety. Unlike clandestine vessels, Fractal Shipping is one of those murky companies specializing in the risky transport of Russian oil, but which do not violate sanctions because they buy below $60 a barrel.
The last thing they need is to attract attention, as Gatik found out the hard way. Between November 2022 and March, this company, based in a cubbyhole-sized office in a Bombay shopping mall, acquired nearly 60 vessels for an estimated $1.4 billion. This excessive appetite aroused suspicion: Between April and June, several certification companies, such as Lloyd's Register and the American Bureau of Shipping, as well as reputable insurers like The American Club, stopped providing services to several dozen of the company's tankers. "The mere fact that a ship is carrying Russian oil does not mean that it is illegal or in violation of sanctions," Daniel Tadros, head of The American Club, told Le Monde. "A shipment is legal as long as we receive a certificate proving that the oil was purchased below the price cap." Since then, Gatik has transferred ownership of its vessels to a multitude of companies that regularly change their names to remain unnoticed.
'Huge margin'
"Don't get the wrong idea," said Windward boss Ami Daniel. "It's not the clandestine vessels so much as the traders who are hijacking the sanctions, for the simple reason that they buy and sell the oil." Since Switzerland, a world center for commodity traders, implemented Western sanctions, many of them have left Geneva for the air-conditioned towers of Dubai. Located at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, between Asia and Africa, the port is ideally situated on the new Russian oil route, which has extended to China via Saudi Arabia and India. Dubai is also a tax haven for gold dealers and Russian oligarchs, protected by banking secrecy. In other words, it's an ideal location for traders seeking discretion, who rent offices in the huge free zone of the Dubai Multi Commodities Center, a district of glass towers and shopping malls.
Business intelligence firm Diligencia tells Le Monde that there have been numerous companies specializing in Russian oil trading in the region since 2022. For example, it cites Tejarinaft FZCO, the brand-new company set up in 2022 by the Moroccan businessman Hicham Fizazi, as well as Coral Energy DMCC, Marshal Shipping LLC, Everest Energy DMCC and Petroruss DMCC. These new traders, domiciled in the United Arab Emirates, bought a third of the Russian oil exported worldwide, i.e. $17 billion, between January and April. Much of this is delivered elsewhere.
The relocation from Geneva to Dubai is not without risk. Swiss authorities suspect that Paramount Energy & Commodities SA, one of Switzerland's leading traders in Russian oil, headed by Dutchman Niels Troost, has continued to transport oil above the authorized ceiling price, through a Dubai-based company with an eerily similar name, Paramount Energy & Commodities DMCC. A Financial Times investigation published in March showed how the same trader used the company to continue transporting oil from Russia, purchased at over $60 a barrel, via certain vessels insured with Western insurance companies. Troost rejects these accusations.
Traders would be the main beneficiaries of sanctions circumventions, according to Daniel: "Let's say you're a trader in Dubai and you buy Russian oil, you hire an old tanker to transport toward Malaysia, then you store it there for a month in an offshore tanker for a million dollars, then you transfer the oil to a second, then a third ship, falsify the documents for $100,000 and resell the whole thing in the West at a huge profit."
First destination: India
It is partly thanks to these traders that Russian oil exports to India have increased tenfold since the start of the country's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In May, India was buying 40.4% of its imported oil from Russia, compared with just 2% before the conflict. These supplies would have saved it more than $7 billion between April 2022 and May, thanks to the low price of Russian hydrocarbons, subject to sanctions. In just a few months, India has dethroned the European Union as the leading recipient of Russian hydrocarbons while taking Russia's place in supplying Europe with petroleum products. In other words, India has become the main "launderer" of Russian oil banned in Europe, but re-exports it in the form of diesel or gas oil after refining it on its own soil.
Figures from the Indian Ministry of Commerce show that Indian exports of petroleum products to Europe rose from $287 million in April 2021 to $1 billion in April. It's big business that indirectly benefits Russia, since India's second-largest refinery, at Vadinar in the west of the country, is operated by Nayara Energy, which is 49.13% owned by the Russian energy company Rosneft. This position is fully assumed by the world's third-largest oil consumer, which relies heavily on imports. "A part of what India buys is refined and is bought by Europe," said Jawed Ashraf, India's ambassador to France, "our purchases and exports help to stabilize the international oil market."
But not all Russian oil is sold below the ceiling price of $60. In early July, the average price of a barrel of so-called "Ural" crude oil, exported for the most part from Russia's Baltic Sea ports, rose slightly above the $60 threshold for two weeks, suggesting that the price imposed by the G7 was not being respected. "This means that Western companies have transported or ensured the transport of Russian oil even though this is forbidden," said Isaac Levi, analyst at the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who pleads for "the oil price cap to be lowered, monitored and respected."
International sanctions have already cut Moscow's hydrocarbon revenues by around half, a pillar that used to contribute 45% of the state budget alone. But, aware of the high risks of sanctions being abused, the European Union tightened them on June 23, specifying that it would ban vessels from accessing its ports if they were suspected of carrying Russian crude oil purchased above the ceiling price, or if they "illegally jam, turn off or otherwise disable their navigation systems when transporting Russian crude oil." "Not only do those who violate sanctions in Europe risk little, apart from a ban on access to ports for a few months," said Windward boss Daniel, "but European countries don't have as many investigators as the UK or the US to detect such fraud." However, powerful artificial intelligence and data analysis tools make it possible to measure the cargo of ships based on their draft mark and to precisely track their itineraries.
"It is possible to identify the origin of every crude as its own unique set of compositions much like a human fingerprint," said Peter Kolding, vice president of Hafnia, the world's largest tanker operator, "however, most shipping countries don't have that kind of insight, nor is it customary for shipping documents to include that level of detail." "You can track the ships in the shadow fleet or ghost fleet, but it's very difficult to trace them back to the owners hidden behind shell companies," said Wright. The world of shipping ends where the world of offshore finance begins, where capital flows instantly and is much harder to track than oil tankers. "There's so much money at stake in the Russian oil trade," said Wright, "that there are also plenty of ways and skilled people to get around the sanctions."
Video source: Malaysia maritime enforcement agency – Malaysian Coast Guard