Without a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, the Israeli prime minister's situation in the polls will remain dire and the economy will weaken further. Biden needs to tell him: If you want an agreement with Riyadh, stop the coup
Whether or not an agreement has been reached on the framework for a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, as claimed by The Wall Street Journal this week, it is clear that the Riyadh-Washington axis is buzzing. U.S. President Joe Biden has spoken of progress; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with Bloomberg that even without a formal agreement, Saudi Arabia and Israel can build “an economic corridor of energy, transport and communications … from Asia to the Arabian Peninsula to Europe.” Talking like a would-be entrepreneur pitching his invention on “Shark Tank,” Netanyahu declared that this would have “enormous economic consequences for your investors. And if they have to bet on it right now, I’d bet on it, but I can’t guarantee it.”
In its report, which was denied by the White House, the Journal gave a time frame of nine months to a year to achieve a possible agreement. For Netanyahu, nine months would be too late: His focus is first of all domestic. An agreement of one sort or another with Saudi Arabia (with or without a grandiose event in Washington, that would help Biden and the Democrats) would deal a death blow to the Israeli protest movement and the opposition. We can easily imagine the night when we hear about a breakthrough on the Saudi track: It will kick off a global festival that will dominate the news cycle in Israel, the wider Middle East and in fact in the entire world for weeks, with a celebratory ceremony on the White House lawn, a visit to Riyadh and talk of new markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
Such a dramatic diplomatic move – which without a doubt will be the most significant since the peace agreement with Egypt four decades ago – will indeed give a huge boost to the economy and will strengthen the narrative being pushed by Netanyahu, his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Justice Minister Yariv Levin and all the rest: Full democracy with an independent judiciary and a strong Supreme Court (the most activist court in the world, according to Netanyahu) is not a sine qua non for growth and prosperity.
An agreement with Saudi Arabia is the only thing that can save Netanyahu from the catastrophe currently shaking Israel. He has no other leverage. In Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman he trusts. Without the Crown Prince Mohammed, Netanyahu’s situation in the polls will continue to be dire. Without the crown prince, Israel’s economy will continue to weaken. There are similarities to the social protests of the summer of 2011. Netanyahu was convinced that if they continued his regime faced a clear and present danger. He acted on two fronts: He appointed the Trajtenberg Committee to formulate solutions to the housing and cost-of-living crises, and he obtained the release from Hamas captivity of the abducted soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for more than 1,000 terrorists, an act that was contrary to everything he had preached for decades. The majority of the public supported the move and the prime minister soared in the polls to levels he had not previously experienced. The threat had been lifted.
There is no comparison with the current situation. Not with the scope of the protests, their intensity or their duration. But there is also no comparison with the dampening effect that normalization with Saudi Arabia will have on those Israelis fighting for democracy, who enjoy the backing of most of the Israeli public. Under the umbrella of an agreement with the Saudis, Netanyahu and his racist government will be able to continue tormenting the judiciary, minorities, LGBTQ people and the liberal, progressive elements in Israeli society.
Israel’s existence as a democracy is dependent on putting the brakes on this insane government and expelling it from power through elections. The key is held by one man, the president of the United States. With 15 months to go until the presidential election, Biden needs progress on the Saudi front no less than Netanyahu does. Since the Israeli government coup began the Democratic administration has used a heavy hand against Netanyahu and his government in an effort to stop Israel’s slide into the abyss, with only partial success. It is no coincidence that the prime minister has yet to receive the invitation to the White House that he so desires – and as far as we know, no meeting is planned on the sidelines of next month’s UN General Assembly in New York. These are important steps but they are far from sufficient. Biden has to tell Netanyahu: If you want an agreement with the Saudi crown prince, stop the government coup now.
In Israel’s parliamentary system, I can control what my ministers do but not what they say, Netanyahu told an American interviewer who read out Smotrich’s remark that Israel should “wipe out” the Palestinian village of Hawara. Smotrich has shown that the prime minister can’t control his ministers’ actions, either.
The Palestinian Authority is an old obsession for Smotrich. In that respect, he is different from most of the ministers in this government, who in their stupidity do not understand Israel’s strategic need to strengthen the PA. Given that his criminal abuse and cruelty toward the West Bank Palestinians serves no real purpose in Israeli public opinion, the finance minister has decided to launch an assault on Palestinian society in Israel by freezing funding for Arab local governments and higher education.
In the Jewish supremacy government, which by the day seems to be more and more like a branch of the Ku Klux Klan, as former Mossad director Tamir Pardo has put it. Racism and hatred of Arabs are after all the best currency. The finance minister, who heads a religious racist party, is a prominent trader in this currency. What was it he called Netanyahu, “lying son of a liar”? Well, Smotrich is a racist son of a racist. He was born into racism, he suckled it with his mother’s milk, he was raised on it, he is married to a woman who took her racism to the maternity ward and without a doubt he is educating their children to be racist.
Smotrich never pretended to be a “responsible adult,” as the cliché goes. He simply works quietly, without giving daily interviews, like his twin, Itamar Ben-Gvir. The national security minister has done nothing to further his area of responsibility, he has only caused damage and sowed destruction. Smotrich works quietly and intelligently to create an irreversible reality that will lead to the realization of his “decisive plan” for de facto annexation of the entire West Bank. He doesn’t advertise the enormous damage he is wreaking as a minister in the Defense Ministry, through the Civil Administration.
The correct, sane approach to Israel’s Arab citizens would be to allocate funds and resources to address the raging crime in their communities and improve the standard of living. This government is doing the exact opposite: The policies championed by Yoav Segalovitz, who led the program to eradicate violent crime in Arab communities under the previous government, have been buried under Ben-Gvirian rhetoric and bluster. Ben-Gvir’s term as national security minister has turned out to be a golden age for criminals in Arab communities. He is their man in government and they can scarcely believe their luck.
And who does the government turn the screw against? Mayors and schoolchildren who want to increase Arab enrollment in higher education in Israel. Smotrich, who dislikes nothing more than the sight of Arabs, would like to see them all go to study in Palestinian or Jordanian universities – just to ensure our camp remains pure. “It’s a shame Ben-Gurion didn’t finish off the job in 1948,” Smotrich called out from the Knesset dais recently.
If there is one good thing to come out of recent events, it is the hope that in the next election Arabs will indeed come out in droves to vote and kick out the right wing.
Smotrich could have taken a different tack: to listen to the professionals in the Finance Ministry, to be honest and to position himself as a person who gets things done, not as a member of the “hilltop youth” in a suit who seeks only to raze and ruin and fan the flames of hatred. That was the approach adopted by Avigdor Lieberman in the previous government. Smotrich received from him a full public kitty, strong economic data and a bright future. This week the Finance Ministry reported that Israel’s budget deficit rose 3 billion shekels ($808.87 million) in June, to 1 percent of the gross domestic product, when the annual deficit target is 1.1 percent. And that is before the credit rating agencies have had their say.
Nothing makes Netanyahu more paranoid than the judiciary's preoccupation with the law narrowing the scope to declare a prime minister unfit for office. All the most threatening edicts by the mafia council known as the “heads of the coalition parties” (that is, Levin) have centered around this issue.
Once it was a news story that Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara had spoken with her people about the incapacitation law; another time the High Court of Justice agreed to hear a petition against this legislation designed for one person.
“This is no different from a military coup,” “it's an illegal attempt to depose a sitting prime minister,” “a black flag,” “an attempt to harm Israeli democracy” – these are just some of the more reserved comments that Levin wrote, Netanyahu approved and the party heads signed off on.
On Sunday, ahead of a High Court hearing on the issue, ministers were sent to threaten the judges lest they consider striking down the law. After the legislation was passed and the court decided to debate the petition in an expanded panel, the coalition chiefs launched a coordinated attack, declaring that the court doesn’t have the authority to stop the law from going into effect.
Speaker Amir Ohana, who's overseeing the Knesset's descent to new lows, also sent threatening messages. That's why he was selected for the job, alongside his role as a fig leaf to cover the shame of Israel's most homophobic government ever.
The prime minister also went heavy on the bullying in his interview with Bloomberg this week. Right at the start he declared that the next step in the judicial overhaul – and according to him the last – would be to change the makeup of the Judicial Appointments Committee. (Maybe I should note that this contradicts his claims that, with the reasonableness standard now quashed by parliament, the rest of the “reform” will be based on a broad agreement with the opposition.) The crime boss insinuated to Israel’s judges: If you cross the border into my territory, I'll cross the border into yours.
Netanyahu is so afraid because he knows he's well within the sphere of incapacitation, at least theoretically. In May 2020, 11 High Court justices unanimously cleared him to head a unity government with Benny Gantz subject to a commitment not to handle “issues pertaining to the law enforcement system.” He has violated this pledge countless times, just as he violated the coalition agreement with Gantz.
Netanyahu is often compared to the head of a crime family, but that misses the point. In a crime family, your word is sacred and a handshake is like a signed contract. But Netanyahu has never hesitated to trample on a signed deal or public commitment if his personal interests suddenly need it.
At first glance, the annulment of the reasonableness standard and the meddling with the Judicial Appointments Committee have no direct connection to Netanyahu’s corruption trial. But as any child knows, without the reasonableness standard to prevent arbitrary dismissals and unreasonable appointments, an attorney general, legal adviser or state prosecutor acting to withdraw the indictments against Netanyahu is possible and even likely.
And if the Judicial Appointments Committee becomes completely political as Levin wants, the judges who hear any appeal in Netanyahu's trial will be chosen based on their political affiliation.
On September 28, in an 11-judge panel, the High Court will hear a petition on the incapacitation law. On September 12, a full 15-judge panel will hear a petition against the annulment of the reasonableness standard. The panel will include two liberal justices, Esther Hayut and Anat Baron, who are retiring a month after the hearing.
If Netanyahu and Levin had given the matter more thought, they would have postponed the legislation until the winter session in mid-October and the two liberal justices would be gone, improving the two Likudniks' churlish chances.
Three months ago, before the Knesset broke for its spring recess, MK Gilad Kariv published a post calling for a link-up between his Labor Party and Meretz to the left. His reasoning: After Meretz failed to cross the electoral threshold in the last election, the Zionist left should come together and add on “new forces.”
Meretz people had trouble suppressing their anger. First, let Labor chief Merav Michaeli step down and they’ll take it from there. After all, she's the most hated politician on the left.
Until recently, the polls were consistent: Meretz, which currently remains without a leader or Knesset representation, remained stable at four or five seats, while Labor, despite its highly active Knesset caucus, polled under 2 percent, well below the 3.25-percent electoral threshold. Some pundits considered this stable condition, others said it was terminal.
Over the past month, the pollsters have been considering how a “protest party” would affect the political map. The latest Channel 12 poll found that this outfit would win 10 Knesset seats, while Meretz and Labor would be wiped out. Gantz's National Unity Party, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu would be stung.
For now there's no point drawing any conclusions about the next election – except one noted by Kariv: If the assumption was that the floor was seven seats (four for Labor and three for Meretz), now the floor can collapse altogether.
In November, the Labor Party convention will meet for the first time since the general election a year earlier; it will be its first physical gathering since the pandemic. If it were up to Michaeli, she'd decide on procedures for the meeting.
“I won’t let it happen,” Kariv told me this week. “The convention has to debate the question of unification. There's enormous political energy out on the streets – hundreds of thousands of people protesting every week against the coup. If we hesitate, those energies will be channeled to a protest party or Gantz. If we establish something new based on Meretz and Labor, we have a chance to channel some of these energies to us.”
Kariv adds: “Merav has no political thesis but stagnation. She hasn’t done any thorough research among our voters on a link-up and its timing. I have a thesis. Give us something other than saying, 'It’s not urgent.'”
Kariv’s analysis seems logical. For now he sees no point in challenging for the Labor leadership. “First we need to unify and then we'll hold a leadership primary. Whoever wants can run. Merav, or maybe Tzipi Livni, or maybe I'll run.”
If at the convention his proposal beats Michaeli’s, that will basically mean the party is showing her the door. She'll be forced to draw conclusions, even if this takes time.
As if to validate Kariv's word's, Michaeli's interview on Army Radio this week confirmed what's being said about her and her colleagues. She said it wasn’t her decision to stay separate from Meretz before the November 1 election.
“There was a decision by the caucus, which unanimously thought that running with Meretz was the wrong thing to do. ... It’s not what caused the results of the election. It’s time to move on. … We need to take a different approach in the coming election. I was for joining forces with Gantz and Lapid. That was the right thing to do.”
Michaeli has been in denial since last summer, and the symptoms seem to be getting worse. Not a sentence of hers has lacked manipulation, spin or daydreaming. The move for Labor to go it alone was her decision without a doubt, and the Labor lawmakers followed her (they share the blame). A Labor-Meretz link-up would have knocked the right wing down to 62 seats from 64, maybe less.
Joining forces with Gantz and Lapid? First she needs to get with reality.