By: George Friedman
I should say up
front that I am not writing about Chinese balloons. Instead, I am
writing about the situation in Ukraine, which is getting increasingly
dangerous.
Until relatively
recently, Russian assaults on Ukraine tended to be contained by the
Ukrainian armed force – not universally but frequently enough to prevent
Russia from keeping territory or achieving victory. But in the past
month or so, Russia has begun to hold its ground. If that becomes the
norm, then Ukraine is in serious trouble.
The United States
has kept the front intact by introducing new weapons. The current
weakness of the Ukrainian army is due to a lack of longer-range rockets
that could strike the Russian rear, hitting reinforcements and supplies
moving to the front. Without these elements, Russia can’t maintain its
position.
The problem is
that the range of the new munitions is so great that they can reach
Russian territory. The U.S. has made it clear it has no intention of
striking Russian soil. In fact, Washington has ordered Ukraine not to
use the munitions at their fullest range, and there are rumors that the
Americans modified the missiles to ensure they don’t. But Ukraine is
fighting an existential war, and its willingness to use anything less
than full power is inevitably questionable.
So far, Russia
has not been struck, nor has Poland, where supplies and U.S. troops are
based. The tacit agreement not to hit either has prevented the war from
becoming a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia. If either side
deliberately attacked Russia or Poland, all bets would be off.
With the delivery
of new missiles, a new danger thus emerges, not least of which is that
Russia could choose to bring the war to even greater heights by forcing
escalation. In which case nothing can be ruled out – not even Russian
false flag operations. This isn’t merely an analysis of paranoia. Moscow
has characterized the conflict as a long war against the West, and if
that is indeed how it sees things, then forcing escalation at a time and
place of its choosing might be rational. Doing so would demonize the
U.S. military and give Russia a freer hand in attacking, say, U.S.
positions in Poland. The U.S. has been waging a proxy war without
experiencing losses. The fact that body bags are not arriving at Dover
Air Force Base has given Washington a great deal of room for maneuver.
If the U.S. started taking casualties, and the Russians could
demonstrate that the war was based on a first strike by the Americans,
the ability of the U.S. to wage war might be limited.
Far-fetched as
that may seem, the central issue right now is stabilizing Ukraine’s
position by attacking Russian assets in theater without spilling over
into Russian territory. If that can be done in absolute terms, it would
be hard for Russia to overcome, and it would keep the U.S. out of direct
combat by avoiding U.S. domestic political considerations, which have
destabilized the U.S. military in a number of wars. But the execution
must be flawless, and Russia would have to decline to essentially attack
itself.
All wars are
complex, and all wars have political dimensions. The U.S. is going to
supply long-range rockets, which makes perfect sense in the cold logic
of war. But in the event of some failures in controlling the weapons, it
could create the unexpected, which is never welcomed in war. |